Baz ponders Irish 2000 Guineas and depicts a Phoenix from the flames at the Curragh. #irish2000guineas

Magna Grecia romped to victory at Newmarket in the English equivalent of this race and has to be fancied due to Aiden O’Brien being so successful in doubling up Guineas winners in recent years.

However the time appears to be right for Too Darn Hot who according to Willy Haggas was only 85% for the last run and has apparently come on so quickly an attempt to wait until the Royal meeting in June has been hastily abandoned.

This is all well and good but at 11/8 i’m steering clear. PHOENIX OF SPAIN was a head behind Magna Grecia at Newmarket and only 1 3/4 lengths second to Too Darn Hot at Doncaster. With a current SP of 18-1 and EW extra potential around 14’s this has got to be a safer bet than lumping on a sweaty over-hyped fave. There I’ve said it and probably ruined it now.

2pts EW (or EW extra) PHOENIX OF SPAIN 3:35 Curragh

Bob with a pick at #leicesterraces and a system change

The lack of bets has made me reconsider the strike rate % which at the moment stands at 30%. With the increased filtering it should cut out too many problems if we go to 25%. Today I used exactly that to pick 2x Skelton winners so I think we will run with it from now on.

Typically even with the lowering of the % I can only find one bet for tomorrow.

Leicester – R Beckett 38% Strike Rate 274% Win Return

  • 8:45 Fearless Warrior 4/1

A few tips from Bob at #Perthraces and #Fontwellraces on Thursday

Well Igor had it wrapped up until the last hurdle. Oh well.

Anyway, I have managed to get more than one tip today! Just.

Perth – D Pipe 39% Strike Rate 136% Win Return

  • 4:15 Legal History 10/11 (2pt bet) [Placed last time out]

Fontwell – P Nicholls 36% Strike Rate 100% Win Return

  • 7:15 Wonderful Champ 8/11 (2pt Bet) [Placed at least once in the last 3 races, didn’t place last time but this is way back down in class]
  • 7:15 Southfield Vic 6/4 (2pt Bet) [Don’t think this one will actually race as it won today at Newton Abbot]

Bob with a single at #newtonabbotraces

No surprise that Barbados Blue did win the last race tipped but it didn’t really get us anywhere.

Struggling to find bets before the filtering at the moment, a lot of trainers not running horses at their better tracks. However, I do have another Henderson one to give a go.

Newton Abbot – N Henderson Strike rate 37% Win Return 118%

  • 3:55 Igor 6/5 (2pt Bet) – Placed in one out of the last 3 races. Didn’t place last time but has gone down a class.

Baz looking at long-shots in the big handicaps #Ascotraces #Haydockraces

The 4:00PM at Ascot is a large flat handicap over 7f on sticky testing ground. Therefore I’m looking towards the bottom of the weights as stats suggest a good return against SP for this scenario.

0.5pt e/w TAUREAN STAR fits the bill exactly and has form on sticky ground at Goodwood. Form is a concern hence the hopeful 25-1 SP but there are excuses wrt surfaces and the drop in weight make this a worthy punt.

If your looking for something more proven then I cannot resist my usual punt on RIPP ORF who won this race last year and has about as much chance as any of managing it again.

0.5pt e/w RIPP ORF 4PM Ascot

0.5pt e/w TAUREAN STAR 4PM Ascot

At Haydock the 3:10 I’ve boiled it down to a three way split between FLYING TIGER, CHRISTOPHER WOOD and JOHN CONSTABLE. The latter won last year but has been off form preceding a recent wind-op. The middle one has a good record with current trainer and has to be feared at time of writing as the ATR market movers page shows it 27% green. The long-shot FLYING TIGER is in receipt of weight all round and at 20-1 probably the safest play in a very capable field.

0.5pt e/w FLYING TIGER 3:10 Haydock

0.5pt e/w JOHN CONSTABLE 3:10 Haydock

Bob feeling lonely with one tip at #warwickraces

Not having much luck with the Bin Suroor horses lately, hopefully that will change soon as the stats are good.

Henderson has a lot of horses running at Warwick today but only one of any real note that qualifies through the version 2 betting system.

Warwick – N Henderson 33% Strike Rate 111% Win Return

  • 8:30 Hurling Magic 5/2