Bob hoping there are no fakes at #fakenhamraces

Been stuck in a 5 hour traffic Jam so going to make this short!

Fakenham – Christian Williams 35% Strike Rate 114% Win Return

  • 2:40 Butlergrove King (Placed in the last race) 13/8 2pt Bet
  • 3:45 Fifty Shades(Placed in the last race) 11/4
  • 4:15 Lace Bonnet (Placed in the last race) 9/4

Over the fences at #Uttoxeterraces

The new system is still working well 3 out of 4 so far and 5 points up. No bets on the flat, so lets see how the new system works on the jumps.

Uttoxeter – D Skelton 31% Strike Rate 121% Win Return

  • 3:25 Solomon Grey (Placed last time out) 5/4 (2pt bet)
  • 4:35 Theatre Bar (Won last time out) 11/4
  • 5:05 Goodthyneaway (Won last time out) 11/4

Friday Frolics at #Newcastleraces

Well 2 wins from 2 and 5.5 points up! The new system has started well. Lets hope it continues.

Newcastle – Sir M Stoute 39% Strike Rate 171% Win Return

  • 5:50 Shareef Star (raced this season (7th), at same class) 8/11 2pt bet
  • 6:25 Deal A Dollar (raced this season (2nd), at same class) 6/4 2pt bet

#Redcarraces hosts the only bet

It was good to see that the refinements to the system meant that the only bet we have had so far has come in. Since then opportunities have been non-existent, might have to keep a note on 25% Strike Rate+ just to see how that goes in order to increase the number of horse. However, it will be no good if they all lose! Only one bet today.

Redcar – W Haggas 35% Strike Rate 125% Win Return

  • Cristal Breeze 6/4 (Already raced this season (4th), this is not up a class and odds are below 2/1 so that means a 2pt bet)

Wandering to #wolverhamptonraces with Bob

So first day of the new system.

Wolverhampton – K McLintock 30% Strike rate 140% Win Return

  • 5:10 Grey Mist 5/2 won last race and this is down in class.

Southwell – S Crisford 32% Strike Rate 168% Win Return

  • Both his runners are having their first run of the season so no joy there!

Windsor – S Bin Suroor 31% Strike rate 127% Win Return

  • Again first runs of the season

So just the one today, but that was the point of the filters!

Changes to the Strike Rate / Win Return system

At the moment the system means that you bet on every horse if the Trainer has a 30% Strike Rate or above and 100% Win Return or above at a particular course.

This did work to a point but towards the end of the jump season and the beginning of the flat it just refused to work and profits fell.

So I have looked at all the data from those races and come up with some changes to the system which will mean that there are less qualifying bets but they are more likely to win.

Only horses whose trainers have +30% strike rate and +100% Win Return using Adrian Massey’s data for that course will qualify. Then apply the changes below.

  • No bets on horses with odds above 4-1 (Yes this does mean the odd big win will go awry but it will cut out a lot of the losers)
  • Double the bet on horses that qualify with odds below 2-1
  • Flat Racing
    • No bets on first race of the season
    • No bets on horses going up a class
  • National Hunt Chases
    • Must have placed at least once in the last 3 races
    • If it didn’t place in the previous race it must have changed class, either up or down.
  • Hurdle Races
    • It must have placed at least once in the last 3 races
    • If it didn’t place in the last race it must stay at the same class or have gone lower.

By my calculations that should have put the system at +37 points rather than +21.

Bob with a lonely stat at #Haydockraces

The sole pick came in yesterday in fine style. Lets hope the stats keep fighting back today.

Another sole pick today – but I will try and do a 10 year work up on the main race at Sandown.

Haydock – H Palmer 30% Strike rate 226% Win Return

  • 3:45 Abr Al Hadood 12/1 Worth an each way punt, it has a good draw as well.

A sole pick at #perthraces on Friday

I didn’t have time to put up the picks this morning but had a couple of winners which you can see on the bet history.

Perth – P Bowen 38% Strike Rate 155% Win Return

  • 5:15 Equus Dancer

I have started to analyse the Strike Rate Win Return system in order to start putting some filters in to make it more profitable. Results soon.

Wednesday picks at #fontwellraces and #perthraces

Bank Holiday out of the way, back to normality I hope.

Fontwell – A Honeyball 31% Strike Rate 121% Win Return

  • 3:10 Soulsaver 7/2

Fontwell – P Nicholls 37% Strike Rate 103% Win Return

  • 3:45 Risk and Roll 5/2

Perth – D Pipe 40% Strike Rate 138% Win Return

  • 3:00 Eur Gone West 9/2

Perth – P Bowen 39% Strike rate 160% Win Return

  • 3:30 More Buck’s 7/1
  • 5:10 Curious Carlos 7/2

Stats obtained from Adrian Massey’s website which are based upon a 10 year trend at the course.