Bob’s #GoldCup pick at the #cheltenhamfestival

Okay so today has gone well, both the horses I picked came in. Baz did better as well, so no need to bet on politics tonight!

Just the Gold Cup left for me, I don’t focus on the other races on the last day.

3:30 – Gold Cup

The historical stats actually do a good job of bringing out a leading contender. Being a precious distance or course winner does not seem to actually make any difference here. Placing on the same going is preferable as is winning last time out between Dec-Feb. The current favourite Presenting Percy has not placed on Good to Soft, is not Irish and doesn’t have any Sadler’s Wells DNA in him. Native River and Thistlecrack did not win last time out and Thistlecrack is getting a bit old to win as no horse over 9 years old has won this the last 10 times out. Might Bite promises much and has not delivered lately and I cannot see that changing in this field. So who am I going for …….

BELSHILL is 9 years old, has an OR of 165+, won last time out in February, is Irish, placed on Good to Soft and has Sadler’s Wells pedigree. The SP is also in the right area. Ruby Walsh is in the seat and looking for another win.

So there you go another years worth of sifting through reams of data is nearly over! Good luck to whoever you bet on.

Baz picks day 3 #Cheltenhamfestival

13:30 JLT Chase

I backed LOSTINTRANSLATION in the Big Dipper at Cheltenham this year and although he got 3lb off of the Phillip Hobbs 2017 Cheltenham winner the selection looked to like the hill more than his rival.

14:10 Pertemps Network 3m

Gordon Elliot 1-2 last year and SIRE DU BERLAIS has done enough this year to warrant favouritism.

14:50 Ryanair Chase

Very close between lots of them, Un de Seaux may be 11 but still has potential however after watching it time after time this season I agree with Bob and reckon FRODON has the best chance.

15:30 Stayers

Again agreeing with Bob and backing PAISLEY PARK

Bob on Day 3 of the #chletenhamfestival

Saved again by one race! Namely TOPOF THE GAME came in and covered all my other bets. Not too many races that I like to look at on Thursday just the Ryanair Chase and the Stayers.

2:50 Ryanair Chase

The stats suggest this is between 4 horses, footpad, Road to Respect, Un De Sceaux and Frodon.

Un De Sceaux is probably too old for this race. No horse over the age of 9 has won this in the last 10 years. Footpad is not a distance winner so this will be held against him.

Road to Respect has not raced on the going before but does have form on Good and Soft. Frodon has good form on Good to Soft but not as great on Soft. The partnership of Bryony Frost and Frodon does seem to have worked well and so I am going to use that as the slight edge that FRODON needs to win.

1pt Win – FRODON

3:30 – Stayers

All the stats point towards a PAISLEY PARK win, cannot see who else could win.

1pt Win – PAISLEY PARK

Predictions for day 2 of Cheltenham from Baz #Cheltenhamfestival

Firstly apologies for a hideous day 1 the highlight of which for me was Buever D’air getting rid of the jockey and my £20 just to enjoy the Champion Hurdle one last time a free horse. Here goes for day 2 then but for what its worth I don’t reckon it will happen till Saturday…

13:30 Ballymore Novices

Despite the temptation to go with Champ, the 2nd behind Battleoverdoyen was genuinely unlucky and therefore SAMS PROFILE gets the tentative vote. Long odds outside bet on Jarvey’s Plate could be in order as he finished a close second to Arkle non-runner Elixir De Nutz.

14:10 RSA

My only doubt with SANTINI was the bruised foot scare but this may well be alleviated as the rain falls meaning Henderson’s charge can bring it home.

14:50 Coral Cup

The form of URADEL to ffinish a head second in the £350,000 Ceaserwitch at Newmarket in October trumps the quality of most of these and may be enough to win a valuable prize.

15:30 Queen Mother

ALTIOR unless something terrible happens.

16:10 Cross Country

Only an off day will prevent the well established TIGER ROLL.

Bob hopes to improve on day 2 at the #cheltenhamfestival

Well if I had bet on horses to fall I would have made more money. Thankfully, as Klassical Dream came in I managed to cover my bets.

Onto day 2:

1:30 Baring Bingham

Champ looks good but no horse outside of a 5 year old or 6 year old has won this in the last 10 years. Looking at the stats this is going to come down to two horses and I am going to choose the one which is closest to the average SP which is BATTLEOVERDOYEN rather than City Island.

1pt Win – BATTLE OVERDOYEN

2:10 The RSA Chase

The stats make this look quite tight but in the end I am going to go for TOPOFTHEGAME over Henderson’s On the Blind Side. Mainly down to the fact that TOPOFTHEGAME looks better over softer ground.

1pt Win – TOPOFTHEGAME

2:50 – Coral Cup

SO many horses, so little stats to separate them, this is going to be more a guess than anything else! FARCLAS, no great form, but none needed, has Elliott as a trainer, last run in Feb and around the right odds.

0.5pt Win – FARCLAS

3:30 – Queen Mother Champion Chase

ALTIOR (Although it has to be said Henderson horses are looking a little shaky this year, it wouldn’t surprise me if he was finally beaten)

Cheltenham 2019 Day 1 Picks from Baz #Cheltenhamfestival

13:30 Supreme Novices Hurdle

This is a tremendously difficult race and one which always throws up champions of the future such as Altior and Douvan. The Mullins pair are of particular interest as Klassical Dream beat Aramon by half a length last time out and both are well treated against the field from a weights perspective meaning at the prices Aramon is worth an e/w punt currently 12-1. Al Dancer has the form and the prize money but this suggests he is not necessarily primed for this race. One horse who certainly is primed for this race is FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES. This Joseph Patrick O’Brien trained improving French jumper won easily over CD in a grade 2 and also takes a 4 year old allowance.

14:10 The Arkle

GLENFORSA for the same reasons really outlined by Bob I feel this is the best horse in a race normally won by the best horse. Duc des genievres may provide a stiff opposition if the Mullins bandwagon is in full roll.

14:50 Ultima Handicap Chase

Here I think the Nicholls camp could cash in with GIVE ME A COPPER, everything is right for this horse to capitalize on a good season for the yard.

15:30 Champion Hurdle

Apple’s Jade and Laurina both get the Mare’s allowance and this makes the Champion Hurdle very difficult to pick. At time of writing the pundits are moving to Apples Jade and the twice Champion BUVEUR D’AIR is now as big as 11/4 against a Mare who was beaten in the Mare’s race last year. This is crazy, I think there is more chance of Laurina wining and making it a huge Mullins day 1 party but I refuse to let myself be carried away. The champion hurdler is the champion, surely the jockeys have been very cautious in warm up races this year and it wouldn’t surprise me to see a three time champion in this event.

16:10 Mare’s Hurdle

BENIE DES DIEUX will make or break the accumulator on day one after Apple’s Jade and Laurina went onto better things. Really difficult to see this one losing though.

16:50 Close Brothers

This is the type of race wiley old heads plan to quietly win and quietly win is exactly what SPRINGTOWN LAKE will do for Hobbs and Johnson. Most feared on ratings is Riders of the Storm.

17:10 National Hunt Amateur Riders

BALLYWARD was fourth in the Albert Bartlett and can come good here with the Mullins team in good order.

Bob picks for Day 1 of the #cheltenhamfestival

1:30 Supreme Novices

This looks like it might be a tight affair as you would expect at the Festival. However, one horse does tick more of the boxes than the others and that is the current favourite KLASSICAL DREAM. It is in the right age range, last ran and won in February, is a previous distance winner and has an SP under 12/1. WP Mullins is also a big plus here and has won 3 times in the last few years. Being the favourite is usually not good but if the going stays at Good to Soft this would be okay as the favourite has only won at Good to Soft in the last 10 years and btoh times they were Mullin’s horses.

1pt Win – KLASSICAL DREAM

2:10 The Arkle Challenge

I cannot see beyond GLEN FORSA getting this one. The boxes have been ticked in all the right places, Distance and Going winner, last race won in Feb, Irish, Sadler’s Wells Pedigree, favourite and SP below 9/1.

1pt Win – GLEN FORSA

2:50 Festival Trophy (Ultima) Handicap Chase

This one looks difficult to pick, the top horses all tick the boxes in slightly different ways BUT …… in the last 10 years the winner has always been a previous distance winner and a lot of tomorrows runners are not. So I am drawn towards COO STAR SIVOLA to pull it out of the bag.

1pt Win – COO STAR SIVOLA

3:30 – Champion Hurdle

This looks to be one of the great battles between two great horses. For me despite the fact that APPLES JADE is a mare, she ticks more boxes than the great Buveur D’Air. Chances are neither of them will win and everyone will look silly!

1pt Win – APPLES JADE

4:10 – The Mares Hurdle

Mullins is the man. He has won here more times than anyone in the last ten years and most of them with the same horse. His habit is not to run them in the current season and then watch them win! This profile fits his top runner BENIE DES DIEUX who I cannot see losing.

1pt Win – BENIE DES Dieux

4:50 The Centenary (Close Brothers) Novices Chase

For me A Plus Tard does not tick all the historical stats being too young and not winning last time out. RIDERS ON THE STORM makes a better job of fitting the profile.

1pt WIN – RIDERS ON THE STORM

5:30 – The National Hunt Challenge Cup

Tempted to go with Ballyward but favourites do not generally win and even less so on Good to Soft ground. Instead I am going to go for JERRYSBACK, last run in Jan and placed, around the right age and OR, Irish and placed on the same going before.

1pt Win – JERRYSBACK

Bob’s picks for #Musselburghraces on Sunday

Baz finally got off to winning ways with his study on weights with a good 5/1 Commodore win and a place for Storm Rising. I managed a place with Master Card so made a small profit.

There are a lot of K Dagleish races tomorrow at Musselburgh. K Dagleish has a win return % of 110 and a strike rate of 30%, so should get a winner somewhere with his 4 horses.

  • 2:00 Murphy’s Law 6/1
  • 2.30 Tetraites Style 7/2
  • 3:05 Mixboy 9/4
  • 4:40 Goldencard 6/1

N Henderson has a short priced horse at Warwick where his stats are also good.

5:30 Chantry House 8/11

Using race weights and Massey’s stats to produce good E/W bets. Part 3: 3m+ Handicap Chases by Baz

The stats for 3m+ handicap chases are even easier to read. Basically anything under 14lb or more of the race average weight returns a profit of 114%.

In the 330 at Sandown with a jockey claiming 7lb COMMODORE fits the bill and is also well tipped up by several outlets so value could disappear late in the day as far as price is concerned.

UPDATE

Result: COMMODORE wins easily at 4-1 so for today’s betting this method has produced one winner (4-1) and three places (3-1 7-2 20-1). I love a plan which comes together and look forward to a crazy week of Cheltenham stats and predictions, Keep peeled for daily predictions and updates #bobandbaz1