This is the solitary good race on today other than the Listed Mares Hurdle which I am going to give a miss. It normally has around 7 runners and has been won 4 times by N Henderson since 2011 and P Nicholls has a good record before that.
N Henderson has one horse in the race Rathhill who has had very little previous running. This shouldn’t be a concern as if you look back through my posts you will see he has done this lately and he only enters them if he knows they can win. Rathhill does tick virtually every box from the betting guide; Age 6, No Rating, last raced in December and won, has previously won at distance and on the same going, is Irish, the favourite and has an SP of less than 7/2.
The main obstacles to the win come from the two Nicholls horses and Tizzards, Elixir De Nutz. However, this horse has not placed on the Soft going yet so must be a concern. If the going gets Good to Soft we may see Henderson pull Rathhill and Elixir could be the main contender.
Paul Nicholls Southfield Storm and Grand Sancy both have won over distance and placed on the Soft going. However, Grand Sancy did not win in the last race and has too high an SP at the moment. Southfield Storm could be a player if the SP falls below 7/2.
Mercy Mercy Me looks to be one to avoid but Idee De Garde could prove to be better than the odds suggest as he is a proven distance winner and placed on the same going.
However, at the end of the day, unless the going changes dramatically towards Good (at which point I can see Henderson pull the horse) RATHHILL should win.
1pt Win RATHHILL