Okay, I feel tired, end of term is always like that. Anyway 50% of races today I got right, lets see what happens tomorrow.
2.25 JLT Hurdle (Long Walk)
The betting guide tends to agree with the betting so far but there are some nice chances to look at.
I really am not sure about the current favourite Call Me Lord however, as with Henderson’s winner today (Angels Breath) although it doesn’t tick all the boxes, one knows that if Henderson has put it in the race it is for a good reason.
Unowhatimeanharry looks a more likely bet but no horse over 9 years old has won this in the last 10 years.
That leaves Agrapart and Sam Spinner not too far from the right SP range based on historical stats. SAM SPINNER although unseating the jockey at the last race just about nudges it for me.
There looks to be a great e/w tip of TOP NOTCH, if the starting price was a bit closer I would have suggested it could win the race outright. Stablemates of favourites always seem to have a chance of outshining them on the day.
1pt Win SAM SPINNER
0.5pt E/W TOP NOTCH
3.35 Ascot Handicap Hurdle
The betting guide picks up on some promising horses looking at the patterns in the last 10 outings.
I am not convinced about the current favourite Jolly’s Cracked It. Top weights have not won in the last 10 years and neither have many favourites. As the ground is likely to get softer the chances of a favourite winning decrease further. An age of 9 years old is also outside the normal range of winners.
However, I do like WESTERN RYDER, a distance and going winner, who has run this season and placed last time out with a good OR and age that tick the boxes. The larger field also suggests that the winner will be within 7 lbs of the top weight, which he is. Fidux could well push all the way but is not proven on the soft going. Mont Des Avaloirs looks to be the closest to Western Ryder in terms of historical stats and could well be up there at the end.
Looking further down the field I am tempted by an each way on LORD NAPIER. Again all the OR and age boxes are ticked, they have won at distance and on the going and run this season. At 33/1 must be worth a little punt.
1pt Win WESTERN RYDER
0.5pt e/w LORD NAPIER