Month: April 2019

Bob wishes everyone a #happyeaster #dayofrest

There is only one word for yesterday – Abysmal. I have seen other systems suggesting not to look at the flat until May, maybe that is what we will take away for next year. Also I may have to look at some filters to further narrow any horses down, we shall see.

After so many horses running using the system yesterday, it is no surprise that there are none today. Gives us a chance to lick our wounds and look forward to tomorrow.

Baz angles for longer odds e/w bets #Haydockraces

205 Haydock: this one has a few possibles but I had a good look back at the form and discovered RED TORNADO finished a close third to Dino Velvet at Stratford. Dino Velvet then went on to finish 2nd to Verdana Blue in the Scottish Champion Hurdle so a possible there at double figure odds while writing. Possible danger here is the Horse Cause Toujours who has a case of seconditis albeit once to Grand Sancy.

240 Haydock: THE PADDY PIE currently 4-1 narrowly edges Sumkingofking as the selection due to a recent course win and consistent placing form.

315 Haydock: LYGON ROCK currently 7-1 ridden by Richard Johnson and very well treated in the weights looks like a chance for an e/w punt to me.

Bob hunting for some golden eggs at the #Easterraces

Well yesterday was a bit of a disaster again, with only one horse winning. Lets hope that the stats bounce back today.

Newton Abbot – N Henderson 37% Strike Rate 118% Win Return

  • 3:20 Falco Blitz 8/15

Carlisle – K Dalgleish 33% Strike Rate 161% Win Return

  • 5:10 Tonicngin 7/4

Musselburgh – G Moss 35% Strike Rate 147% Win Return

  • 1:50 Porth Swtan 7/2

Musselburgh – W Haggas 34% Strike Rate 138% Win Return

  • 2:25 Politicise 11/4

Nottingham – S Bin Suroor 33% Strike Rate 114% Win Return

  • 5:05 Making History 7/4

Nottingham – J Candlish 31% Strike Rate 290% Win Return

  • 6:05 Confrontational 5/1

Brighton – J Berry 31% Strike Rate 224% Win Return

  • 6:50 Roy Rocket 13/2

Lots to have a look at and make decisions on.

Baz looks at the All Weather Championships on Good Friday #Lingfieldraces

13:30 Lingfield 19 Apr 2019
Sun Racing All-weather Championships Apprentice Handicap (Class 2) (4YO plus)
Roger Charlton’s BREATHLESS TIMES can take this from the well respected Gallipoli and Lion Hearted.

14:00 Lingfield 19 Apr 2019
Betway All-weather Marathon Championships Conditions Stakes
AMADE with Soumillon booked looks a good thing and the French have a good record in these championships.

14:30 Lingfield 19 Apr 2019
Ladbrokes All-weather Fillies’ And Mares’ Championships Conditions Stakes (Class 2) (4YO plus)
ISLAND OF LIFE has the strongest form with Rashima posing an outside threat.

15:05 Lingfield 19 Apr 2019
Betway All-weather Sprint Championships Conditions Stakes (Class 2) (4YO plus)
KACHY should make amends for last year and win this easily after breaking the track record. Maybe Stone of Destiny can chase him home for the in-form Andrew Balding yard.

15:40 Lingfield 19 Apr 2019
Ladbrokes 3 Year Old All-weather Championships Conditions Stakes (Class 2) (3YO only)
PIZZICATO is a warm order as Soumillon goes again with another French fancy. Charming Kid has a third in the July Stakes at Newmarket and franked form from Dundalk latest but a wide draw here.

16:15 Lingfield 19 Apr 2019
Betway Easter Classic All-weather Middle Distance Championships Conditions Stakes (Class 2) (4YO plus)
WISSAHICKON likely to be too quick for these.

16:45 Lingfield 19 Apr 2019
Sun Racing All-weather Mile Championships Conditions Stakes (Class 2) (4YO plus)
OH THIS IS US sets the standard for the well respected Richard Hannon yard.

15:20 Newcastle 19 Apr 2019
Ladbrokes Burradon Stakes (Listed) (Class 1) (3YO only)
MAGIC J can take this one at the expense of Dariik.

Where have all the stats gone! #Exterraces #Newmarketraces

Nothing again today that matches the criteria 🙁

Struggling to find any stats worthwhile to use today.

Going to have to use Jockey stats today Lizzie Kelly has only 1 ride at Exeter and good stats both for the win and a place – 3:15 Rococo River

The only other thing I can offer are some draw advantages

  • Newmarket 1 mile – Hight Draw is best for winners and win return. Twist ‘n’ Shake with Dettori on board in the 1:15 looks good for this.
  • Newmarket 7f – Either extremity is best. Might be worth looking at Arctic Sound in the 2:25. Perhaps Sunday Star in the 3:35.

Bob hoping for a win at #windsorraces

Well the Jockey stats didn’t work out well yesterday!

Back to using trainer ones, at least one fits the requirements today!

Windsor – S Bin Suroor 32% Strike Rate 128% Win Return

  • 3:30 Gentle Look 13/2

Going to delve into the fate of the favourites data to find some more ideas.

  • Favourites in 2yo races at Windsor have a 42% strike rate and a 107% win return – 2:30

Bob uses Jockey stats today at #wincantonraces

The favourite stats worked as well as expected at Ayr yesterday but not at Thirsk where I think the favourites were a little green certainly out of the stalls. So it predicted the 1:25 Handicap Chase at 5/2 and the 3:00 Novice Chase at 2/1. Might keep an eye on it for the future.

Sadly again there are no viable horses via the strike rate / win return criteria today.

So I will take a look at Jockeys rather than Trainers.

Harry Cobden at Wincanton has a strike rate of 30% and win return of 118%, his place strike rate is over 50% with a positive win return as well. He rides 3 horses at Wincanton today:

  • 2:25 San Satiro (Paul Nicholls) 12/1
  • 3:00 Bally Longford (Colin Tizzard) 9/2
  • 5:10 Mister Tummytucks (Paul Nicholls) 7/1

Paul Nicholls has the far better strike rate and win return so probably better to plump with his horses rather than Tizzards. Looking at the odds probably best to exploit Cobden’s 50%+ place strike rate.

Baz looking for value #Ayrraces

14:25 Ayr 13 Apr 2019 CPMS Scottish Champion Hurdle (Grade 2 Handicap)

IRISH ROE once almost chased down Waiting Patiently and is very well off in the weights today for a long shot. Verdana Blue has the best form and should go close but concedes 12lb to Redician who can also run well.

No picks today but favourites rule at #ayrraces

The %strike rate / % win return method has taken a battering lately but was steadied yesterday by a Paul Nicholls Triple at Fontwell. I am pretty sure the end of the Jump season and the beginning of the flat season is playing a part in this. Just have to weather the storm I guess.

Sadly I cannot offer any picks today as nothing matches the criteria !

I can only offer the following favourite insights using Adrian Masseys favourite data, first figure is strike rate, second is win return.

Maiden Flat Races at Thirsk 46% 101% – Races at 2:00 & 2:30

Handicap Chase at Ayr 35% 105% – Races at 1:25 & 3:35

Novice Chase at Ayr 46% 111% – Races at 1:55 & 3:00