Month: March 2019

First Month Review of the % win return/ strike rate method

I have tried out a number of different methods over the years and most start out ok and then seem to just dive bomb. This method of picking trainers with 30%+ strike rate and 100%+ win return using Adrian Massey’s 10 year course stats at least seems to churn out winners on a regular basis.

The strike rate at the moment is a fairly good 43%, considering it is based around a 30%+ strike rate from the trainers.

In terms of profit, the method is 27 points up, which is definitely comparable to some other published methods I have used. The thing is you have to stick at it, you cannot miss out a day otherwise that is when the win will happen and you will lose out.

In terms of winners most tend to be short priced but occasionally something bigger comes along to bump it up.

So I think I will keep using it for the moment. There might be some other similar methods I can look at as well. But that would be for a later date.

Thursday’s picks at #chepstowraces, #sedgefieldraces and #ludlowraces

The %win return / % strike rate method is still chugging on nicely using Adrian Massey’s data so I thought I would try and add something new to it and see how it goes. At the moment we are just looking at Trainers who have horses racing, but how about Jockeys? Some jockeys are course specialists and hired by stables because of this. Some of them have some very good %win return / strike rate stats and must be worth a shot alongside the trainers. So I will start adding some in, particularly on days with not many bets, and see how it goes.

Trainers

Sedgefield – N Mullholland [43% Strike rate / 138% win return]

  • 2.05 Molliana 2/1

Chepstow – T Lacey [29% Strike rate / 305% win return]

  • 2.50 Fair Kate 5/2
  • 4.00 Alberto’s Dream 10/1 (E/W)

Jockeys

Ludlow – B Geraghty [42% Strike Rate / 124% win return]

  • 3.00 Allelu Alleluia 6/1 (e/w)
  • 4.10 I’dliketheoption 7/1 (e/w)
  • 4.45 Musical Slave 4/5

Mondays %win return/strike rate pick at #plumptonraces

Out of the shed load of horses using this method on Saturday I just about broke even! Too many horses perhaps, I have seen other betting methods which say not to bet at the weekend, probably because of this problem.

Anyway from lots to one. A King has the stats required at Plumpton today and his sole horse is THE CULL BANK in the 2:50.

Good Luck

Baz’s Saturday Yankee: alleviate that Cheltenham hangover #Uttoxeterraces #Kemptonraces

14:25 Uttoxeter: DR DES is the e/w bet of the day in receipt of weight all round particularly from the well fancied De Rasher Counter who finished behind DR DES last time and is 10lb worse off. Lough Derg Farmer is another well handicapped sort worth watching.

Midlands national: MILANSBAR can take this, if he does Bryony Frost will be approaching immortality. Folsom Blue must go close.

14:05 Kempton TIMOTEO
14:40 Kempton BURROWS EDGE
15:15 Kempton Brother TED

Bob’s Saturday picks using the %win return/strike method at #kemptonraces #uttoxeterraces #fontwellraces #newcastleraces

The system is chugging along nicely, don’t think it is ever going to be spectacular but it brings the money in regularly.

The following horses have trainers with a 30%+ Strike Rate at the course and a 100%+ win return. There are a lot of horses today, so I have added in brackets the Jockeys %win return/strike rate for the course.

Kempton – N Henderson

  • 1:30 – Heatstroke 13/8 (N De Boinville 104/29)
  • 2:40 – Burrows Edge 5/2 (N De Boinville 104/29)
  • 3:50 – The Cashel Man 13/8 (J McGrath 137/15)
  • 5:00 – Shiskin 4/6 (N De Boinville 104/29)

Fontwell – A Honeyball

  • 1:40 Duhallow Gesture 6/4 (R Dingle No Ratings)
  • 2:15 Le Couer Net 15/8 (R Dingle No Ratings)
  • 2:50 Shapiro 6/4 (R Dingle No Ratings)

Uttoxeter – D Skelton

  • 2:25 Aintree My Dream 12/1 (H Skelton 150/35) (EACH WAY)
  • 3:00 Shannon Bridge 20/1 (H Skelton 150/35) (EACH WAY)
  • 3:35 Get On The Yager 16/1 (H Skelton 150/35) (EACH WAY)
  • 5:20 Tiger Alley 15/8 (H Skelton 150/35)

Uttoxeter – G Elliott

  • 3:35 Folsom Blue 13/2 (D Russell No Rating)

Newcastle – M Scudamore

  • 5:30 Ask Himself 11/4 (B Powell No Rating)

Baz Picks for Day 4 #Cheltenhamgoldcup

So many decent horses who have fundamental flaws is the story of this years Gold Cup IMHO. Bristol de Mai only wins at Haydock but is a real threat in the mud as is Native River who has just looked a couple of yards short this season. Clan des Oboeux would have to go to new level to win another huge race and Anibelle Fly is coming back to form after winning a big race in Ireland last year.

I am having an E/W crack at THISTLECRACK who can cap an outrageous career by taking this and reports that he is back to his best gather confidence further. I also think Presenting Percy has been schooled for this and may well be the best of the shorter priced favourites.

1pt E/W THISTLECRACK

1pt Win PRESENTING PERCY