Month: March 2019

The flat is back and so is Baz with a Saturday Yankee #Doncasterraces

Doncaster 2-25 Handicap (Class 2) 8f

SOD’S LAW is well treated on weight terms and goes on the good ground with some impressive recent speed figures.

Doncaster 3-35 Handicap (Class 2) 8f

RIP ORF, out of Rip van Winkle, is the true master of big field handicaps and can once again take this at the expense of the well treated and dangerous Auxerre which is just a shade too short but boasts strong form. The yard possibly thinking the ground isn’t quite soft enough. Great Prospector represents e/w value.

Kempton 2-05 Listed (Class 1) 10f

MATTERHORN for Johnston and Fanning seems to be head and shoulders above rivals and can take this albeit at a short price

Doncaster 3-00 Listed (Class 1) 8f

SHARJA BRIDGE is well treated and has the form and class to easily dispose of these rivals today.

Bob wanders #thelincolnmile

The betting guide does a fairly good job of separating out the horses, leaving 2 clear horses to watch and a good each way to have a punt at.

Kynren and Saltonstall are both previous distance winners and at least placed on the same ground. Saltonstall has a good pedigree and Kynren has placed at Doncaster before. Both of them have good stall positions as well, with the good ground favouring mid to high numbers. Saltonstall’s form is a bit erratic, whereas Kynren’s looks better which is why I am going to go for KYNREN.

In terms of each way GREAT PROSPECTOR ticks a lot of boxes and at 20/1 is surely worth some money.

1pt win KYNREN

0.5pts e/w GREAT PROSPECTOR

Saturday Picks at #Uttoxeterraces

%winreturn / strike rate method (+33 points since 26th February)

Uttoxeter – D Skelton 31% strike rate, 121% win return

  • 2:10 Kereman 10/3
  • 2:45 Supremely Lucky 3/10
  • 3:20 Cabaret Queen 13/2
  • 3:55 Renwick 4/1
  • 4:30 Moonlight Dancer 13/2
  • 5:05 Zamparelli 9/4
  • 5:35 Molly Ollys Wishes 3/1

Doncaster – S Crisford 67% Place strike rate, 113% win return

  • 1:50 Mokarris 7/1 e/w

First Month Review of the % win return/ strike rate method

I have tried out a number of different methods over the years and most start out ok and then seem to just dive bomb. This method of picking trainers with 30%+ strike rate and 100%+ win return using Adrian Massey’s 10 year course stats at least seems to churn out winners on a regular basis.

The strike rate at the moment is a fairly good 43%, considering it is based around a 30%+ strike rate from the trainers.

In terms of profit, the method is 27 points up, which is definitely comparable to some other published methods I have used. The thing is you have to stick at it, you cannot miss out a day otherwise that is when the win will happen and you will lose out.

In terms of winners most tend to be short priced but occasionally something bigger comes along to bump it up.

So I think I will keep using it for the moment. There might be some other similar methods I can look at as well. But that would be for a later date.