Month: February 2019

Free Stats – Bob is in Heaven! #horseracingstats

There is no doubt about it, horse racing relies upon stats, yes my wife may pick a winner by the colour of the silks, my son may do the same by pointing at one but there is nothing like looking through the stats and picking a winner.

For my historical stats I tend to look through various results pages and pick out the relevant stats, put them on a spreadsheet and do a bit of analysis which I put on the website. There are ways out there in which you can do this automatically using scrapers and the such. Sadly, my skills lie in other areas.

Fortunately other people can do this and some of them offer the stats for free. Flatstats is one such site where you can access stats on the flat races and manipulate them in various ways, if you pay the membership you get more ways of dealing with the stats.

Another site which has a shed load of free data is the one made by Adrian Massey. I don’t know how he does it but he must manage to scrape the data from every race going and then give you ways to analyse that data. Awesome. My hat is doffed. I guess when I finally retire perhaps I may look to up my scraping skills. Or I could drink wine. Hmm decisions.

Baz looks at the action #kemptonraces and unusually agrees with Bob. Plus a couple of added niceties!

14:25 Kempton
888Sport Take ‘Em On Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2)

Here PETIT PALAIS didn’t really stay at Cheltenham but was not disgraced 7L behind Verdana Blue. The selection then went on to win with ease at Ludlow and Tom George has the current form and experience to make this happen. In addition I cannot resist an outside bet on ECCO, the Nicholls runner didn’t fair too well in the German Derby but appears to have far fewer blots on the copybook than even the fancied horses here. With Nicholls in form watch the market for this one.

15:00 Kempton
Sky Bet Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Here Angels Breath has the form and the backing but I cannot be tempted at odds on. SCARLET DRAGON on the flat even used to take on Wissahickon (running in the Winter Derby Today at Lingfield and nailed on) and the form of the last win was good. Essentially if the horse has the stamina in the last 3 furlongs the speed will carry him through.

15:35 Kempton
888Sport Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) (5YO plus)

This is very difficult, the main star Glen Rocco destroyed everyone in his last 2 runs but is up one whole stone and this makes it difficult to back with any degree of confidence. Talkischeap ran an excellent race last time out and Alan King is always on the pulse but consistently failing to beat la bag au roi really puts me off. ADRIEN DU PONT at the prices looks to be the best value with an e/w shout for the Venetia Williams trained DIDERO VALLIS who could be a double figure price and has excellent form on good ground.

14:40 Newcastle
Vertem Eider Handicap Chase (Class 2) (5YO plus)

VICENTE has excellent form against Ras de Maree and in the Scottish National. The trainer loves this race and this is taken to be a good win.

16:00 Fairyhouse (IRE) 23 Feb 2019
BetVictor Bobbyjo Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
The Bobbyjo has produced Grand National Winners such as Hedgehunter, this year It is out of Alpha des obeux, the much loved Elliot horse Outlander and MAGIC OF LIGHT. The selection can run down the other two and is heavily backed this morning.

15:15 Lingfield
Betway Winter Derby Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (4YO plus)

In the Derby Trial WISSAHICKON ridden by Dettori managed to get abducted after 5f by Aliens and spent 10 whole minutes of the race being probed by alien instruments. Of course it still won and for this reason will be long odds on today. Surely a cert, I would combine this with England beating Wales in Cardiff and enjoy watching a day of excellent sport.

Bob hopes not to make a Pigs Ear out of #kemptonraces

Sadly, I cannot get the image and taste of pigs ear out of my mind. It seemed like a good idea at the time 5 pints in. Strips of ear, fatty on the outside with cartilage on the inside. I managed a few, Pennington managed them all, the man has an Iron Stomach.

Anyway, I have looked at two races today the Adonis and the Dovecote. Both are going to be hard to predict but hey, it cannot be any worse than the pigs ears and I am sure defeat will not taste as bad.

2:25 Adonis Juvenile Hurdle

It is going to be a close race I reckon and there are a few horses who could take this. I am going to go for PETIT PALAIS, a distance winner with more experience than the other close contenders, won last time out in January, fairly decisively.

Now that said, there is an interesting stat that Paul Nicholls has a habit of winning with new horses to his stable that have just been gelded. ECCO is just this type of horse and I am going to have to place a bet on this one as well just because it is such an odd stat.

1pt Win PETIT PALAIS

1pt WIN ECCO

3:00 Dovecote Novices Hurdle

Angels Breath looks good but last ran in December and is at this moment the favourite on Good Ground which means it is less likely to win. I guess I am concerned over the lack of recent runs and experience that this horse has.

Instead I am going to go for the more experienced SCARLET DRAGON, who won well last time out and was beaten last year by the good horse Global Citizen.

1pt WIN SCARLET DRAGON

Bob looks at future indicators from today’s racing at #kemptonraces

Bit of an absence I know but I had fun in Ukraine eating pigs ears and then got hit by some lung infection, probably not related. Baz has been dying all week, not enough red wine I reckon.

There are three races on today at Kempton that have been indicators of potential winners at the Cheltenham Festival and the Grand National.

The Dovecote Novices Hurdle is an indicator for the Supreme Novices although the last to win both was FLOWN in 1992. The following horses are down to run in both:

  • Angels Breath
  • Scarlet Dragon
  • Tokay Dokey

The Adonis Juvenile Hurdle is a good indicator for the Triumph Hurdle, since 1988 six horses have won both. The following horses are down to run in both:

  • Ecco
  • Fusil Raffles
  • Needs to be Seen
  • Petit Palais
  • Praeceps
  • Red Force One

The 888Sport Chase can be used as an indicator for the Grand National, two horses have won both races in the same year. From my quick look however, none appear to be running in both!

Races cancelled #equineflu

Well today would have seen races at Newbury, the Betfair Hurdle, the Denman Chase and the Game Spirit (Betfair Exchange) Chase will all be sadly missed being good indicators of what may go on at the Cheltenham Festival.

Native River won in the Denman before going on to win the Gold Cup, Altior won the Betfair Exchange for the last two years before going on to win the Queen Mother Champion Chase last year and the Arkle the year before that.

So we shall miss some of the good indicators of who to look out for at the Cheltenham Festival. I guess we may see a plethora of late entries for next weeks Ascot races, assuming the racing is back on. One would hate to think of what may happen if the ban continues into and beyond the Cheltenham Festival.

Anyway, Irish racing is on, Baz will have a look at a few races. I have no historical stats so will be relying on Baz to help fund my weekend.

Lots of favourites and a few outsiders. Baz looks at #Sandownraces #Lingfieldraces #dublinfestival

225 Sandown Scilly Isles Chase

Well the temptation to go for the favourite has been resisted with LOSTINTRANSLATION really impressing last time out and tipped to bring it home again. The latter has only really impressed at Ascot and the all round test today is into unknown territory and not for me at 11/8 or less.

300 Sandown Hero’s Hurdle

This is one of those races where there are six or seven with chances and I have to admit my heart skipped a beat when looking at the weights as FLEMCARA is extremely well handicapped when considering the form line against Eminent Poet and the also fancied Folsom Blue. The Lavelle/Coleman thing seems to be gathering pace and at 12/1 at time of writing he is taken to beat the improving Keeper’s Hill who could be anything since returning well from a spine operation.

Dublin Festival Day

Main fancies here include APPLE’S JADE in the Champion Hurdle at 1325 and LE RICHBOURG in the Frank Ward at 1545. Also an outside bet on the old timer JEZKI in the 1400 as he has a 7lb claimer on and back in the day (a very long time ago hence 33-1) won some huge races in Ireland. Wonder Laish is a serious contender as fave but seems to have drifted.

Lingfield Winter Derby Day

Looks like a favourites double at Lingfield with KACHY taken to retain his Cleeve Stakes crown at 1345 and later on Frankie Dettori and Richard Hannon run the much fancied WISSAHICKON in the Winter Derby Trial at 1455.