Month: December 2018

Bob on the #challownovices at #newburyraces

Heading home today and knowing the connection on the ferry I probably will miss this race!

This looks to be an intriguing race with a very good field of which many could win. The betting guide is up and running for this race.

Winners peak at 5 years old of which there are 4 in the race, Brewin’Upastorm, Getaway Trump, Kateson and Nestor Park. The rest are 6 years old which have a slightly less percentage of winners (30% compared to 50%)

It is a 50/50 choice between favourites and non-favourites but less favourites have won on Good to Soft ground which is what it is at the time of writing. Therefore Champ being the favourite has a negative against him.

They are all distance winners except Brewin’Upastorm, who is a winner on the same going along with Champ. Kateson has not won on Good to Soft but has won on Soft and Good suggesting that it should not be a problem. Nestor Park also has a good record on the going. Whilst being a course winner is not such an advantage it should be noted that Kateson and Champ both are.

Champ, Kateson and Nestor Park also have the preferred pedigree of Sadler’s Wells.

To add a bit of value to the proceedings I am gong to ignore Champ and plump for KATESON who I believe will do well in the race.

Bet History Updated

Figured as we get to the New Year I better get it updated!!!!

Points winner so far (1pt = Win, 0.5pt = Placed) is Baz with 17.5pts, I am just behind on 15pts.

Percentage of winners – Baz 34%, Bob 41%

Percentage of placed horses – Baz 75%, Bob 56%

So as you can see Baz is winning overall, but I have a higher percentage of winners so far!

Bob v Baz Christmas Results

21st Dec

2.30 Noel Novices

  • Vinnidcation (1) v Lil Rockerfeller (3)

22nd Dec

2.25 JLT Long Walk

  • Sam Spinner (Lost) v Agrapart (Lost)

3.35 Ascot H’Cap Hurdle

  • Western Ryder (3)

26th December

1.55 Kauto Star Novices

  • Topofthegame (2) v Santini (3)

2.30 Christmas Hurdle

  • Buveur D’Air (2) v Buveur D’Air

2.10 Rowland Meyrick

  • Lakeview Lad (1) v Taking Risks (3)

3.05 King George VI

  • Might Bite (Lost) v Waiting Patiently (Lost)

27th Dec

1.20 Wayward Lad Novices

  • Dynamite Dollars (1) v Marias Benefit (Lost)

1.35 Finale Juvenile Hurdle

  • Quel Destin (1) v Adjali (2)

2.30 Desert Orchid Chase

  • Altior (1) v Altior (1)

2.50 Welsh Grand National

  • Vintage Clouds (Lost) v Vieux Lion (Lost)

Bob – 5 winners out of 11 races (46%), Placed 8 out of 11 (73%)

Baz – 1 winner out of 10 (10%), Placed 6 out of 10 (60%)

Baz’s picks for Thursday #welshnational #kempton

13:20 32 RED

Maria’s Benefit has been protected by Stuart Edmunds and her only blot was not really liking Cheltenham last year. I think she could prevail over Kalashnikov

Welsh National. This looks set up for Vintage Clouds who was widely regarded to have been unlucky finishing 4th last year. however my favourite horse is running Vieux Lion Rouge who gave up 1m out a month ago only to get going again in the last half mile. This horse stays and this is the second race after wind surgery.

13:35 Chep Adjali should prevail and beat Quel Distin in France.

Altior to win again!!!

They think it is all over, well Christmas is but the races are not!

1.20 Wayward Lad Novices

This looks like a struggle between Kalashnikov and Dynamite Dollars. They are very close in the historical stats and Dynamite Dollars just edges it. I have bet on both horses over the last year or two and am impressed by both. However, for me DYNAMITE DOLLARS is the one to go for.

1pt Win DYNAMITE DOLLARS

1.35 Finale Juvenile Hurdle

Favourites don’t tend to win as much as Non-Favourites and that coupled with the historical stats means I will not be going for the favourite Adjali. The stats point to QUEL DESTIN as being the likely winner with Arverne not far behind.

1pt Win QUEL DESTIN

2.30 Desert Orchid Chase

There can be only one!

1pt Win ALTIOR

2.50 Welsh Grand National

Like any Grand National, it is going to be a bit of a hit and miss affair. The stats point towards VINTAGE CLOUDS as the one to beat.

1pt WIN VINTAGE CLOUDS

Baz’s best bets for Boxing Day in UK and IRE

Well unless you are into NBA there’s been a 48 hour sports blackout which wont be repeated for another year hooray. To commemorate this day I’ve had a good look at the races and noticed some shorter priced acca opportunities as well as some very high quality racing.

1:20 Kem Glen Forsa is touted as a big upcoming star and won with consummate ease at Exeter, up 11lb but down in trip and can account for Lough Derg Spirit.

1:55 Kem Very difficult race as Topofthegame won easily last time and La bague Au roi gets an allowance and has the champ booked. I still can’t see past Santini here though this is the class horse and he will win again.

2:30 Kem Buveur D’air wins then wins the Champion Hurdle, wont even be close.

3:05 Kem Waiting patiently has not been prepared for this race publicly but I cannot believe they will wait 200 days then just chuck it in the King George. Somethings going on here and I’m taking Waiting Patiently to defy the non-ideal ground and beat Thistlecrack.

2:10 Wet Danny McMenamin rode Niechtz to victory 6 weeks ago and rates as a top young prospect and takes 7lb off. Therefore I’m saying Taking Risks can beat Wakanda and Lake View Lad to spoil this one.

And in Ireland…

2:00 Lim Getabird: bang in form class act of the race.

3:10 Lim Seskin Flyer: hammered opposition at Thurles recently and 7lb considered workable.

1:45 Leo Warnaq: good form on the flat and seems to have taken to hurdles well, top jockey.

2:55 Leo Le Richbourg: well weighted and quietly fancied against the better known top two.

330 Leo Fury road: point to point champ never seen before, Gordon Elliot, respected.

Merry Christmas everyone!!!

BOXING DAY 26th December 2018: King George pick from BAZ #kinggeorge

A field of this class is noteworthy and I am deliberately avoiding overanalysing this race due to the fact I am already bias towards two horses and biased against another two.

IMHO Might Bite never quite manages to bite when it matters and is the master of the early season ITV non festival Saturday race. Mortalised by defeat to Native River I just cant see Might Bite having the necessary mentality to take a field of this quality despite winning with ease last year.

Native River himself, a horse I have always supported, is also not my choice here as the win at Cheltenham was so perfectly planned there are few lucky fortune tokens left for a one off race such as this.

Bristol De Mai often fails to impress at Kempton and Politilogue who has ran well this year has failed to get in front too many times.

For value bets in this race I think the reports and injury free period could see THISTLECRACK bounce back and win this. The key danger is WAITING PATIENTLY who is unbeaten and hasn’t looked like losing. Moved from Malcom to Ruth Jefferson this horse has been nurtured like a champion in waiting and the patience shown by these exemplary trainers in doing so justifies serious e/w support.

St Stephen’s Day picks from Bob (That’s boxing day to you baz)

1.55 Kauto Star Novices chase

The betting guide highlights two horses that match a number of the indicators for the race and neither is the favourite Santini.

TOPOFTHGAME is 6 years old a prime age based upon past winners, ridden this season and placed in the last race, has previously won at distance and going and has odds 4/1 or below.

Likewise, NO HASSLE HOFF, ticks the same boxes but is an outsider in the betting. Certainly worth a punt at 66/1.

1pt win TOPOFTHEGAME

0.5pt e/w NO HASSLE HOFF

2.30 Christmas Hurdle

Only one horse comes out on top here, although I reckon it will be a mighty tussle between the top two protagonists Buveur D’Air and Verdana Blue.

BUVEUR D’AIR is just in front for me, mainly down to the going.

1pt win BUVEUR D’AIR

3.05 King George VI Chase

This looks to be a titanic tussle between many of the field. The historical stats surprisingly point towards two horses that many feel are probably past their best, but if they hit form on the day then they could dominate nicely.

MIGHT BITE just out points Native River on the historical stats but will need to make a better effort than the last poor effort in the Betfair Chase. However, faith is sometimes needed and at this time of year it is probably fitting that we out it in Might Bite to do the business.

1pt win MIGHT BITE

2.10 Rowland Meyrick H’Cap Chase

Favourites do not tend to win here often and the historical stats also suggest this with the current favourite not ticking many of the boxes.

I have LAKEVIEW LAD just ahead of Crosspark but it will be a very close race I reckon with many of them able to win.

1pt win LAKEVIEW LAD

Happy Christmas!

Christmas Focus

Turkey and red wine ….. and some horse races!!!!!!

If we are sober enough then Baz & I will try to give you our best suggestions for the following races:

26th December

King George VI – Kempton

Christmas Hurdle – Kempton

Kauto Star Novices – Kempton

Rowland Meyrick Handicap – Wetherby

27th December

Welsh Grand National – Chepstow

Coral Future Champions – Chepstow

Desert Orchid Chase – Kempton

Wayward Lad Novices – Kempton

Cannot promise I will get all the stats written up though.

Have a Merry Christmas!!!!!!