Month: November 2018

Saturday at #newburyraces & #newcastleraces with Bob & Baz

Well having tasted the bitterness of defeat in todays races I have washed it down with curry and a good Cabernet Sauvignon and turned my eyes towards tomorrow’s races. The Newbury Winter Festival and the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle host a lot of Class 1 races tomorrow.

12:45 The Ladbrokes John Francome Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) at Newbury

14:05 The Unibet Fighting Fifth Hurdle Race (Grade 1) at Newcastle

14:25 The Gerry Feilden (Ladbrokes Intermediate) Hurdle (Listed) at Newbury

15:00 The Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (Grade 3) at Newbury

 

Baz’s Analysis and Prediction for the Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle 15:00 Newbury. #Bobandbaz1 #Newburyraces

This is a difficult race laden with some of racing’s finest temperamental sorts. Wholestone by all intents and purposes should win this but I worry greatly about his only run at Newbury. Sixth out of six when 9lb lower compared to YounowhatImeanharry in todays race was Wholestones only disappointment but it came at Newbury and I worry it wont like the track, or the weight differential. Sam Spinner is young enough and brilliant enough early season to win but once again the weights show that re-opposing Wholestone will be difficult as Sam Spinner has 10L to find from Aintree.

I agree with Bob that Monbeg Theatre could be a good e/w bet but also think that Momella, who goes off almost at flyweight, may also warrant e/w inspection but caveats regarding a long lay off.

At the risk of getting stung more times than a Jack Russell sniffing a hornet’s nest I just cannot let Younowhatimeanharry go unbacked having dropped so low in the weights. This combined with the good reappearance and confident mutterings from the trainer decided it for me. It might be different if Wholestone takes to the track but I think over this distance we might have the oldest winner for a good few years. You know what I mean?

Baz’s Analysis and Prediction for the Ladbrokes Handicap Chase 14:25 Newbury. #Bobandbaz1 #Newburyraces

Beggar’s Wishes has won its last four and looks ready to step up. However this is countered by a big weights shift whereby Touch Kick is 24lb better off with Beggar’s Wish since they clashed at Kempton two years ago. King’s Odyssey has been ultra consistent with placings and was last seen 3 weeks ago when 2nd to War Sound by 6L. Three Musketeers has no decent form at all really but did manage to beat King’s Odyssey in March 2017 by 25L and is only 4lb worse off today. All in all very difficult and the vote could to go to the 7 year old Touch Kick who has the best chance of improving but I’m hoping a short 20F and a good second to War Sound will mean King’s Odyssey can bring home the money.

Baz’s Analysis and Prediction for Ladbrokes Novices Chase (Berkshire Chase) 13:50 Newbury. #Bobandbaz1

Ladbrokes Novices Chase (Berkshire Chase) 13:50 Newbury

With Spiritofthegames seemingly too heavy and Talkischeap beaten by a good 5L by the front pair last time out, this must be between Lostintranslation and La Bague Au Roi. The latter beat the former by 1.5L and stayed on well 21 days ago at this track. They are on the same terms but looking back at the last race Lostintranslation was impeded slightly 2 out and pecked the last. I’m hoping that blew the wind out of him (to coin a technical term) and therefore narrowly prefer the Tizzard runner to reverse placings.

Friday racing at #newburyraces – Bob

Class 1 racing starts early this week at Newbury with the Ladbroke Winter Carnival kicking off on Friday. There is also great racing at Newcastle with the Fighting Fifth on Saturday.

A quick look at Fridays racing.

Berkshire (Ladbrokes) Novices Chase

This has never been a large field but 4 horses is a bit pitiful.

There is not a lot between the 4 runners using historical stats, but I have won before with Spiritofthegames and think it may do the job again.

Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle Race

This is a better looking race with 8 runners.

Preferred Age Range 6-9 counts against Kris Spin and Unowhatimeanharry.

OR range counts in Clyne and Kris Spin.

The odds narrow down to just Wholestone, Sam Spinner and Unowhatimeanharry.

The preferred pedigree counts for Wholestone, Sam Spinner, Momella and Monbeg Theatre.

The field has 8 runners so using an extrapolation from the weight of the winner against size of field suggests that the winner must be within 3lbs of the top weight. Only Wholestone and Sam Spinner are in this range.

The going is soft at the moment so this counts against the favourite. So it is going to be a dust up between Wholestone and Sam Spinner and I will be betting on whichever is not the favourite!

Might be worth a punt on Monbeg Theatre each way.

 

 

Bob vs Baz – The Results #bobandbaz

Some really great races there, especially Paisley Park steaming through to take the win, awesome.

14:05 Christy 1965 Chase – Politologue won so points for both Bob & Baz

14:25 Betfair Exchange Stayers – Paisley Park first for Bob, Shades of Midnight 2nd for Baz and First Assignment 3rd for Bob

14:40 Coral Hurdle – If The Cap Fits so points for Bob & Baz

15:00 Betfair Chase – Won by the great Bristol De Mai, Native River second for Baz

I think Bob wins by a place! Close thing.

Bob vs Baz – The predictions #bobandbaz

Should be a good day!

14:05 Ascot  – (Christy) 1965 Chase

  • Politologue – Bob & Baz

14:25 Haydock – Betfair Exchange Stayers Hurdle

  • Folsom Blue & Shades of Midnight e/w – Baz
  • First Assignment (win) and Paisley Park e/w – Bob

14:40 Ascot – Ascot (Coral) Hurdle

  • If The Cap Fits – Bob & Baz

15:00 Haydock – Lancashire (Betfair) Chase

  • Native River – Baz
  • Might Bite – Bob

 

Baz’s bets #Haydock and Ascot

So the 14:05 Christy 1965 chase at Ascot sees some decent horses run, I find it difficult to see past Politologue who has course form from 2016 beating Rock the Kasbar who romped home last week. Politologue goes well fresh with two wins following breaks of over 200 days in previous years. It carries just 6lb more verses Sizing Granite after a 20L defeat of the latter so I am agreeing with Bob here and going for the favourite.

The Ascot Coral Hurdle at 14:40 is another race where favourite backers may find piece of mind. If the Cap Fits is at the same weight differential against We have a Dream when the former won by over 7L so other than a Bryony Frost/ Nicholls upset with Old Guard This seems another solid fave.

The Betfair Stayers Handicap at Haydock is a very interesting and difficult race to unpick. The reason to back First Assignment here is that he is 8lb well in as the penalty for last weeks win has not been applied yet.
It is all there for First Assignment but I don’t like the fact he has just run and am looking for less obvious dangers. The two I have found are Shades of Midnight who is appealing due to a lower handicap mark and the Interesting Folsom Blue. This is a Gordon Elliot horse with Richard Johnson booked to ride. The combination alone suggests ambition and the son of Old Vic has only won on heavy so it seems strange they would run this horse in such a big race if not convinced about the underfoot conditions.

And Finally…

By ignoring obvious ground concerns and looking purely at weights, Mr Antolini in the 13:50 at Haydock has a huge chance. This horse was tipped up by the tipping legend that is Frank Hickey and listening to the man purr about this horses chances is normally a once a season incident. It is all on the Racing Postcast for this week but at the odds I will be having a nibble at 9/2.

Summary

14:05 Ascot Politologue Win 1pt
14:40 Ascot If the Cap Fits Win 1pt
14:25 Haydock Folsom Blue 0.5pts EW and Shades of Midnight 0.5 pts EW
15:00 Haydock 2pts Win Native River 0.5 pts e/w Thistlecrack
13:50 Haydock 1pt EW Mr Antolini

A look at the two other big races the #1965chase and the #Ascothurdle – Bob

Two big races may be at Haydock today, but there are equally big races happening at Ascot, namely the Christy 1965 Chase and the Ascot (Coral) Hurdle.

Lets start with the 1965 Chase which only has 6 runners which is a great pity.

Horses of 8 years old dominate the winners over the last 10 years and the only one in the field is Gold Present.

Winners over the last 10 years have all been within 10lbs of the top weight; this doesn’t help us as they all are, but there is a slight correlation between field size and weight with the larger the field the closer to the top weight the winner is. An extrapolation of this suggests that with a field of 6 the winner will be within 5lbs of the top weight; this includes Politologue, Benatar and Gold Present.

Favourites have a good record here making Politologue stand out and most horses who have won have an SP of 7/2 or below which at the moment only includes Charbel and Politologue.

Politologue is also the only P Nicholls horse in the field and he has won this more than anyone else in the last 10 years.

The Sadler’s Wells pedigree crops up again and only Politologue and Sizing Granite can claim this.

All of this points towards the favourite POLITOLOGUE to do what is expected. My only worry is how he will find the going as he has one on Ground more towards the soft lately. It could be that GOLD PRESENT might be the main danger and could be worth an e/w bet.

Advice: 2pts Win POLITOLOGUE, 1pt e/w GOLD PRESENT

Ascot Hurdle next

90% of winners come from the age group 4-7 so this discounts Rayvin Blue and Tomngerry.

There is a positive for the favourite as they have a higher percentage of winners and on the 3 times the race has been on Good ground the favourite has won twice; so therefore If the Cap Fits is standing tall here.

With the favourites winning the SP over the last 10 years is mainly 100/30 or below so this will only include If the Cap Fits and We Have A Dream.

Irish horses (If the Cap Fits and Tomngerry) and those with the trust Sadler’s Wells pedigree (If the Cap Fits and Babbling Stream) also stand out.

In terms of trainers N Henderson has won 3 times in the last 10 years and We Have A Dream is the only one he has in the field.

Weights of winners tend to be well spread out and there is little to no correlation between size of field and weight of the winner.

Advice

2pts win IF THE CAP FITS who was a good 7l ahead of We have a Dream in their last race.