Month: October 2018

West Yorkshire Hurdle [Preview]

Another good looking race this one with some good horses leading the betting. Much will depend on which horses are left after declaration, as well as who is favourite.

Between Wholestone, Clyne and Old Guard at the moment as it is with the odds.

Charlie Hall Steeple Chase [Preview]

This has all the makings of a great race with many previous winners in the mix. There is not much between them as you might expect at this point of the season and with so many big names. Much will depend upon who ends up as favourite and the going. Also odds are based on the antepost so these will definitely change.

 

Old Roan Chase (Grade 2) (Class 1) – Aintree [Raceday]

The latest betting shows Flying Angel (7/2) steaming in to close on the odds for Cloudy Dream (11/4) so it is well backed. I still think Cloudy Dream is likely to start favourite but best to check before the off.

1pt Flying Angel to win if Cloudy Dream is favourite, otherwise put it on Cloudy Dream.

There might be a useful each way on Javert as well.

0.5pt each way Javert (9/1)

Old Roan Chase (Grade 2) (Class 1) – Aintree [Declaration]

A number of runners that entered have now been taken out leaving 9 runners in the field. My original choice of God’s Own is no longer running, so lets look for a suitable alternative.

Non-Favourite (90% of winners)

  • Cloudy Dream is the favourite at the time of writing

Generally odds below 10-1 (70% of winners)

  • Cloudy Dream (5/2)
  • Frodon (11/2)
  • Javert (6/1)
  • Value at Risk (6/1)
  • Flying Angel (15/2)
  • Theo (8/1)
  • Voix D’Eau (10/1)

Irish (70% of winners)

  • Cloudy Dream
  • Flying Angel
  • Javert
  • Templehills
  • Theo

No great pedigree needed (Nothing stands out)

Not raced this season (90% of winners)

  • Cloudy Dream
  • Flying Angel
  • Frodon
  • Javert
  • Ramses de Teillee
  • Value at Risk

Did not win last out (100% of winners)

  • Cloudy Dream
  • Flying Angel
  • Frodon
  • Ramses de Teillee

 

At the moment the main contenders are Cloudy Dream and Flying Angel, with Frodon and Javert not far behind.

Verdict at the moment

1pt to win Flying Angel if Cloudy Dream remains favourite otherwise 1pt to win Cloudy Dream.

 

Old Roan Chase (Class 1) (Grade 2) – Aintree [Preview] Updated

UPDATED BASED UPON ANTEPOST ODDS

The runners were entered at noon today so lets have a quick look at how they fit in the betting guide.

Age 10+ (60% of winners from this range)

  • God’s Own

OR below 160 (60% of winners from this range)

  • Every runner has an OR below 160 so this isn’t going to help us!

Non-Favourite (90% of winners)

  • Have to wait for this piece of info

Generally odds below 10-1 (70% of winners)

  • Cloudy Dream (9/2)
  • Modus (11/2)
  • God’s Own (13/2)
  • Frodon (9/1)
  • Beggar’s Wishes (10/1)

Irish (70% of winners)

  • Beggar’s Wishes
  • Cloudy Dream
  • Doitforthevillage
  • Flying Angel
  • God’s Own
  • Guitar Pete
  • Javert
  • King’s Odyssey
  • Templehills
  • Theo

No great pedigree needed (Nothing stands out)

Not raced this season (90% of winners)

  • Cloudy Dream
  • Doitforthevillage
  • Flying Angel
  • Frodon
  • God’s Own
  • Guitar Pete
  • Javert
  • King’s Odyssey
  • Modus
  • Ramses de Teillee
  • Value at Risk

Did not win last out (100% of winners)

  • Cloudy Dream
  • Doitforthevillage
  • Flying Angel
  • Frodon
  • God’s Own
  • Guitar Pete
  • King’s Odyssey
  • Modus
  • Ramses de Teillee

 

At the moment the main contenders are God’s Own (13/2), Cloudy Dream (9/2). The favourite is Cloudy Dream at the moment, leaving God’s Own as the choice.

Verdict at the moment

1pt to win God’s Own

Next Race – Old Roan Chase 28th October

A bit of a break until the next race, the Old Roan Chase at Aintree on 28th October.

A little aside, the previous winners of the Novices Chase went onto big things, they include horses such as Cue Card, Finian’s Oscar and Fingal Bay. Therefore, it may well be worth keeping an eye on Spiritofthegames for the future.

Persian War Novices Hurdle (Class 1) (Grade 2) – Post Race

  1. Secret Investor 5/1
  2. Double Treasure 8/1
  3. Gosheven 6/1

Minella Warrior in 4th but could have had 3rd at the last jump.

I had tagged Secret Investor early on when the declaration was made, just changed my mind during the last hour as the odds kept changing. I went 1pt on Minella Warrior and covered it with a 1/2 pt on Secret Investor. So in the end I ended up 2 pts up.

+8 1/2 pts

Chepstow Racecourse Silver Trophy H’Cap Hurdle (Grade 3) – Post Race

  1. Garo de Juilley (25/1)
  2. Point of Principle (25/1)
  3. Whatmore (16/1)
  4. Dans le Vent (10/1)

The winner was nowhere on my radar and didn’t fit any of the trends seen. Didn’t see the race so not sure how it played out. Point of Principle was on one of the lists but didn’t really stand out either.

Looks like it was too much for Sneaky Feeling, Theclockisticking came in 5th, 3 lengths behind).

+5 1/2 points

Chepstow.racecourse.co.uk Novices Chase (Listed) (Class 1) – Post Race

  1. Spiritofthegames
  2. Monbeg Legend
  • Fell – Tommy Tucker
  • PU – Poetic Rhythm

Well. I took the bet on Spiritofthegames (7/1) when Master Tommytucker was favourite so that was a good choice. I had a covering bet(1/2 point) on Master Tommytucker as it started to drift out towards the start of the race. Pity Master Tommytucker fell as it would have been good to see where it ended up.

+6 1/2 Points