Category: Preview

Tolworth Hurdle at #Sandownraces tomorrow

Well done to Baz for the New Years racing tips, he did very well. My feeling is the ground ended up being more Good than Good to Soft and that threw my stats off. Well that’s my excuse anyway!

Only one race tomorrow – Thank God! The stats are up all ready for you to look at.

Some decent winners in the last few years, Summerville Boy, Finian’s Oscar, Yorkhill and L’Ami Serge to name a few.

Have a read of the betting guide and then check the going tomorrow before making a decision. At the moment it is Soft but if it goes Good to Soft then we are in new territory as it hasn’t been that in the last 10 years! Let’s pray for a bit of rain.

Bob on the #challownovices at #newburyraces

Heading home today and knowing the connection on the ferry I probably will miss this race!

This looks to be an intriguing race with a very good field of which many could win. The betting guide is up and running for this race.

Winners peak at 5 years old of which there are 4 in the race, Brewin’Upastorm, Getaway Trump, Kateson and Nestor Park. The rest are 6 years old which have a slightly less percentage of winners (30% compared to 50%)

It is a 50/50 choice between favourites and non-favourites but less favourites have won on Good to Soft ground which is what it is at the time of writing. Therefore Champ being the favourite has a negative against him.

They are all distance winners except Brewin’Upastorm, who is a winner on the same going along with Champ. Kateson has not won on Good to Soft but has won on Soft and Good suggesting that it should not be a problem. Nestor Park also has a good record on the going. Whilst being a course winner is not such an advantage it should be noted that Kateson and Champ both are.

Champ, Kateson and Nestor Park also have the preferred pedigree of Sadler’s Wells.

To add a bit of value to the proceedings I am gong to ignore Champ and plump for KATESON who I believe will do well in the race.

They think it is all over, well Christmas is but the races are not!

1.20 Wayward Lad Novices

This looks like a struggle between Kalashnikov and Dynamite Dollars. They are very close in the historical stats and Dynamite Dollars just edges it. I have bet on both horses over the last year or two and am impressed by both. However, for me DYNAMITE DOLLARS is the one to go for.

1pt Win DYNAMITE DOLLARS

1.35 Finale Juvenile Hurdle

Favourites don’t tend to win as much as Non-Favourites and that coupled with the historical stats means I will not be going for the favourite Adjali. The stats point to QUEL DESTIN as being the likely winner with Arverne not far behind.

1pt Win QUEL DESTIN

2.30 Desert Orchid Chase

There can be only one!

1pt Win ALTIOR

2.50 Welsh Grand National

Like any Grand National, it is going to be a bit of a hit and miss affair. The stats point towards VINTAGE CLOUDS as the one to beat.

1pt WIN VINTAGE CLOUDS

St Stephen’s Day picks from Bob (That’s boxing day to you baz)

1.55 Kauto Star Novices chase

The betting guide highlights two horses that match a number of the indicators for the race and neither is the favourite Santini.

TOPOFTHGAME is 6 years old a prime age based upon past winners, ridden this season and placed in the last race, has previously won at distance and going and has odds 4/1 or below.

Likewise, NO HASSLE HOFF, ticks the same boxes but is an outsider in the betting. Certainly worth a punt at 66/1.

1pt win TOPOFTHEGAME

0.5pt e/w NO HASSLE HOFF

2.30 Christmas Hurdle

Only one horse comes out on top here, although I reckon it will be a mighty tussle between the top two protagonists Buveur D’Air and Verdana Blue.

BUVEUR D’AIR is just in front for me, mainly down to the going.

1pt win BUVEUR D’AIR

3.05 King George VI Chase

This looks to be a titanic tussle between many of the field. The historical stats surprisingly point towards two horses that many feel are probably past their best, but if they hit form on the day then they could dominate nicely.

MIGHT BITE just out points Native River on the historical stats but will need to make a better effort than the last poor effort in the Betfair Chase. However, faith is sometimes needed and at this time of year it is probably fitting that we out it in Might Bite to do the business.

1pt win MIGHT BITE

2.10 Rowland Meyrick H’Cap Chase

Favourites do not tend to win here often and the historical stats also suggest this with the current favourite not ticking many of the boxes.

I have LAKEVIEW LAD just ahead of Crosspark but it will be a very close race I reckon with many of them able to win.

1pt win LAKEVIEW LAD

Happy Christmas!

Christmas Focus

Turkey and red wine ….. and some horse races!!!!!!

If we are sober enough then Baz & I will try to give you our best suggestions for the following races:

26th December

King George VI – Kempton

Christmas Hurdle – Kempton

Kauto Star Novices – Kempton

Rowland Meyrick Handicap – Wetherby

27th December

Welsh Grand National – Chepstow

Coral Future Champions – Chepstow

Desert Orchid Chase – Kempton

Wayward Lad Novices – Kempton

Cannot promise I will get all the stats written up though.

Have a Merry Christmas!!!!!!

Schools out! #Ascotraces here we go!

Okay, I feel tired, end of term is always like that. Anyway 50% of races today I got right, lets see what happens tomorrow.

2.25 JLT Hurdle (Long Walk)

The betting guide tends to agree with the betting so far but there are some nice chances to look at.

I really am not sure about the current favourite Call Me Lord however, as with Henderson’s winner today (Angels Breath) although it doesn’t tick all the boxes, one knows that if Henderson has put it in the race it is for a good reason.

Unowhatimeanharry looks a more likely bet but no horse over 9 years old has won this in the last 10 years.

That leaves Agrapart and Sam Spinner not too far from the right SP range based on historical stats. SAM SPINNER although unseating the jockey at the last race just about nudges it for me.

There looks to be a great e/w tip of TOP NOTCH, if the starting price was a bit closer I would have suggested it could win the race outright. Stablemates of favourites always seem to have a chance of outshining them on the day.

1pt Win SAM SPINNER

0.5pt E/W TOP NOTCH

3.35 Ascot Handicap Hurdle

The betting guide picks up on some promising horses looking at the patterns in the last 10 outings.

I am not convinced about the current favourite Jolly’s Cracked It. Top weights have not won in the last 10 years and neither have many favourites. As the ground is likely to get softer the chances of a favourite winning decrease further. An age of 9 years old is also outside the normal range of winners.

However, I do like WESTERN RYDER, a distance and going winner, who has run this season and placed last time out with a good OR and age that tick the boxes. The larger field also suggests that the winner will be within 7 lbs of the top weight, which he is. Fidux could well push all the way but is not proven on the soft going. Mont Des Avaloirs looks to be the closest to Western Ryder in terms of historical stats and could well be up there at the end.

Looking further down the field I am tempted by an each way on LORD NAPIER. Again all the OR and age boxes are ticked, they have won at distance and on the going and run this season. At 33/1 must be worth a little punt.

1pt Win WESTERN RYDER

0.5pt e/w LORD NAPIER

Friday Feeling Bob looks at #Ascotraces

Last day of term ahead!!!!!!!! Friday feeling is nearly here.

Okay, settle down Bob….

1.55 Ascot – The Kennel Gate (Sky Bet Supreme Trial Novices Hurdle)

Using the betting guide things are looking quite tight amongst the first few horses. Thomas Darby, Angels Breath and Danny Kirwan all tick the boxes of the historical stats. Angels Breath is somewhat untested at this distance but I cannot believe that Nicky Henderson would enter it if the distance was too much. However, Thomas Darby and Danny Kirwan have both won at the distance before although the going might be against them! As the historical starting price for winners is 3-1 or below I shall have to go for the favourite this time THOMAS DARBY.

I also reckon that THISTLE DO NICELY would make a good each way bet. A distance winner, won last time out and the right age according to the historical stats, certainly worth more than the 16/1 at the time of writing.

1pt Win – THOMAS DARBY

0.5pt E/W – THISTLE DO NICELY

2.30 Noel Novices Chase

From the betting guide it looks as though it is going to be a two horse race between Vinndication and Count Meribel. Both are Distance, Going and course winners and won last time out this season. VINNDICATION however has far more consistency over the distance and going, Count Meribel only winning 2 out of 9 races on soft ground against 100% from Vinndication. Likewise, Vinnidication has not lost over this distance yet but Count Meribel has.

1pt win – VINNDICATION

Races we are looking at this weekend

Well, it is coming towards the end of term for me and Baz, we are running on Adrenaline and coffee, probably some red wine as well. There is some great racing at Ascot this Friday and Saturday and we will try to focus on at least four races over the two days.

Friday 21st December

The Noel Novices Steeple Chase

The Kennel Gate (The Sky Bet Supreme Novices Hurdle)

Saturday 22nd December

The Ascot Handicap Hurdle Race

The JLT Long Walk Hurdle Race

I will certainly be trying to get the stats up for those races, we may have a look at some of the listed races as well.

Rest of my preview of #newburyraces and #newcastle races – Bob

It started raining so tennis for the young one was cancelled, which has given me a better chance to complete the preview.

14:05 Newcastle – Fighting Fifth

It is quite difficult to separate the runners historically using the betting guide and Samcro comes out on top when you do this. However, BUVEUR D’AIR has a good record on Soft Ground and when Nicky Henderson has won here in the last 10 years the winner has always been the favourite. I am also a bit wary of Samcro after the defeat last time out.

14:25 Newbury – Gerry Feilden Hurdle

Using the betting guide, there are no stand out horses unfortunately. Ballymoy and Whatswrongwithyou get the nod but only just. At the end of the day WHATSWRONGWITHYOU has a better record on Soft going and is a course specialist.

15:00 Newbury – Trophy Chase

Again the betting guide really doesn’t sort out any winners from this field and I have had to use other stats based on Going, Distance and Course in order to make any headway. I finally ended up with 3 horses Thomas Patrick, Ms Parfois and Dingo Dollar, all who do well on historical stats but also on the other stats previously mentioned.

All perform fairly well on the Soft going although Dingo Dollar has only had one outing on Soft and won. This is a step up in distance for Ms Parfois but the other two have both won at this distance. Finally all have done well at Newbury in the past.

My slight preference is for the upcoming THOMAS PATRICK with an each way on Dingo Dollar.

So all my suggestions

12:45 Newbury – KILBRICKEN STORM

14:05 Newcastle – BUVEUR D’AIR

14:25 Newbury – WHATSWRONGWITHYOU

15:00 Newbury – THOMAS PATRICK (Dingo Dollar e/w)

 

Good Luck!

12:45 #NewburyRaces #johnfrancome – Bob

Going to do this one quickly as have a busy morning carting children around from one place to another!

This race looks very much like a classic struggle between the top two who have raced against each other before.

80% of winners in the last 10 years have been 5-6 years old, this means that Santini, Le Breuil and This is it gain a positive.

Irish horses have won 60% of the races and Kilbricken Storm, Rocky’s treasure, Mr Big Shot and Skipthecuddles fit this.

Horses must have placed last time out as all winners have done this in the last 10 years. All the horses except Skipthecuddles and This is it have done this. More tellingly, 90% of winners raced and placed this season, which then discounts the favourite Santini who last raced in April.

All the horses are within 10lbs of the top weight, the field of 7 suggests the winner might be just 2 or 3lbs away from the top weight This is it at 11-9 and this would include Le Breuil at 11-7 and Rocky’s treasure at 11-8.

Sadler’s Wells descendants run well in this race and that means that Santini, Kilbricken Storm and This is it are favoured.

C Tizzard has won the last 3 outings of this race and his horse this time is Kilbricken Storn.

Finally, the odds of the winners are usually below 5-1 so this would mean Santini and Kilbricken Storm, although Rocky’s Treasure could possibly get in there.

Looking at all the above KILBRICKEN STORM looks good for the win and he beat Santini by 4.5 lengths when they last met on the same terms. Rocky’s Treasure is a big threat and could be worth an each way of the price drifts out but doesn’t like the ground.