Category: General

Tuesday Picks at #newcastleraces and #exeterraces

Captain Drake came in today at 3/1 today, so even though Winningseverything didn’t come in the day ended up in the positives.

There are a couple of horses to look out for tomorrow using the same method of 100+ win% return and a strike rate of 30%+.

K Dagleish has Raymond running in the 4:30 at Newcastle (5/2)

H Fry has Rosemary Russet running in the 3:45 at Exeter (9/2)

Good Luck

Monday picks at #southwellraces

Well today’s bets did not go so badly, Moving in Style came in at 7/2, Dalaman got pulled up and Very Extravagant won well, coming in at 7/4.

So +4 points overall.

Well looking forward to Monday’s races.

Using the stats from Adrian Massey’s site there is only one trainer and course worth looking at and that is Harry Fry at Southwell. He has 2 horses running:

  • 3:55 Captain Drake
  • 5:30 Winningiseverything

Bob gets all statted up for #newburyraces and others!

I am still working on the Cheltenham festival stats so do not have the time to do my usual historical look at the races today. However, I will take a quick plunge into the stats on Adrian Massey’s website that I talked about in my previous post.

I have had quite a good week using his stats and have had a 50% success rate and +11 points. What I did was to look at the course stats for the races each day and focus on trainers who had  %win return above 100% and a strike rate no less than 25%. This means that you get very few horses a day but you can be sure if they win it will be good value most of the time.

Looking at todays races:

Doncaster

  • Emma Lavelle: Boomarang 4:05

Newbury

  • No trainers running today with a good win % return and strike rate. However, Nick Williams has a good place strike rate and e/w return, so consider the following: Flying Tiger 3:10, Le Cameleon 4:50.

Chelmsford City

  • Again no great winners here but Jonathan Portman has a good e/w record and return. He has the following horses running: Walk on Water 7:00

I think Baz is going to look at some other stats for the races, so it will be interesting to see if he matches any of the ones I found.

Free Stats – Bob is in Heaven! #horseracingstats

There is no doubt about it, horse racing relies upon stats, yes my wife may pick a winner by the colour of the silks, my son may do the same by pointing at one but there is nothing like looking through the stats and picking a winner.

For my historical stats I tend to look through various results pages and pick out the relevant stats, put them on a spreadsheet and do a bit of analysis which I put on the website. There are ways out there in which you can do this automatically using scrapers and the such. Sadly, my skills lie in other areas.

Fortunately other people can do this and some of them offer the stats for free. Flatstats is one such site where you can access stats on the flat races and manipulate them in various ways, if you pay the membership you get more ways of dealing with the stats.

Another site which has a shed load of free data is the one made by Adrian Massey. I don’t know how he does it but he must manage to scrape the data from every race going and then give you ways to analyse that data. Awesome. My hat is doffed. I guess when I finally retire perhaps I may look to up my scraping skills. Or I could drink wine. Hmm decisions.

Bob looks at future indicators from today’s racing at #kemptonraces

Bit of an absence I know but I had fun in Ukraine eating pigs ears and then got hit by some lung infection, probably not related. Baz has been dying all week, not enough red wine I reckon.

There are three races on today at Kempton that have been indicators of potential winners at the Cheltenham Festival and the Grand National.

The Dovecote Novices Hurdle is an indicator for the Supreme Novices although the last to win both was FLOWN in 1992. The following horses are down to run in both:

  • Angels Breath
  • Scarlet Dragon
  • Tokay Dokey

The Adonis Juvenile Hurdle is a good indicator for the Triumph Hurdle, since 1988 six horses have won both. The following horses are down to run in both:

  • Ecco
  • Fusil Raffles
  • Needs to be Seen
  • Petit Palais
  • Praeceps
  • Red Force One

The 888Sport Chase can be used as an indicator for the Grand National, two horses have won both races in the same year. From my quick look however, none appear to be running in both!

Races cancelled #equineflu

Well today would have seen races at Newbury, the Betfair Hurdle, the Denman Chase and the Game Spirit (Betfair Exchange) Chase will all be sadly missed being good indicators of what may go on at the Cheltenham Festival.

Native River won in the Denman before going on to win the Gold Cup, Altior won the Betfair Exchange for the last two years before going on to win the Queen Mother Champion Chase last year and the Arkle the year before that.

So we shall miss some of the good indicators of who to look out for at the Cheltenham Festival. I guess we may see a plethora of late entries for next weeks Ascot races, assuming the racing is back on. One would hate to think of what may happen if the ban continues into and beyond the Cheltenham Festival.

Anyway, Irish racing is on, Baz will have a look at a few races. I have no historical stats so will be relying on Baz to help fund my weekend.

Bob reflects on how the unseasonable going is affecting historical stats

Hey, look everyone needs some excuses but even so, the unseasonably good weather is playing havoc with the historical stats and I imagine even more so with trainers as it did in the early part of the season.

The thing is this, at this time of year you would expect the ground to be soft to heavy and to back this up I will throw a few stats out.

Lets take yesterday’s races as a starting point where the going was Good.

  • 90% of the Leamington Novices Hurdle Races and the Classic Chase were on Soft or Heavy over the last 10 years.
  • 70% of the Lanzarote Hurdle was on Soft going, the rest on Good to Soft.

Now I am not a horsey person, but I imagine as a trainer you train horses to run in normal seasonal conditions, ie Soft to Heavy at this time of year. So come the race you either pull them out (as many do) or let the horse run knowing it will affect its chances.

The historical betting which I use as a basis to choose horses is very badly affected by this as using the last 10 years stats means I have nothing to go on if the going is Good. I can only imagine that I might have to go back further and look at the few instances when it is good.

Just a few musings from me on a dreary Sunday morning.

Bet History Updated

Figured as we get to the New Year I better get it updated!!!!

Points winner so far (1pt = Win, 0.5pt = Placed) is Baz with 17.5pts, I am just behind on 15pts.

Percentage of winners – Baz 34%, Bob 41%

Percentage of placed horses – Baz 75%, Bob 56%

So as you can see Baz is winning overall, but I have a higher percentage of winners so far!

Bob v Baz Christmas Results

21st Dec

2.30 Noel Novices

  • Vinnidcation (1) v Lil Rockerfeller (3)

22nd Dec

2.25 JLT Long Walk

  • Sam Spinner (Lost) v Agrapart (Lost)

3.35 Ascot H’Cap Hurdle

  • Western Ryder (3)

26th December

1.55 Kauto Star Novices

  • Topofthegame (2) v Santini (3)

2.30 Christmas Hurdle

  • Buveur D’Air (2) v Buveur D’Air

2.10 Rowland Meyrick

  • Lakeview Lad (1) v Taking Risks (3)

3.05 King George VI

  • Might Bite (Lost) v Waiting Patiently (Lost)

27th Dec

1.20 Wayward Lad Novices

  • Dynamite Dollars (1) v Marias Benefit (Lost)

1.35 Finale Juvenile Hurdle

  • Quel Destin (1) v Adjali (2)

2.30 Desert Orchid Chase

  • Altior (1) v Altior (1)

2.50 Welsh Grand National

  • Vintage Clouds (Lost) v Vieux Lion (Lost)

Bob – 5 winners out of 11 races (46%), Placed 8 out of 11 (73%)

Baz – 1 winner out of 10 (10%), Placed 6 out of 10 (60%)