Category: Race Day

Bob hopes not to make a Pigs Ear out of #kemptonraces

Sadly, I cannot get the image and taste of pigs ear out of my mind. It seemed like a good idea at the time 5 pints in. Strips of ear, fatty on the outside with cartilage on the inside. I managed a few, Pennington managed them all, the man has an Iron Stomach.

Anyway, I have looked at two races today the Adonis and the Dovecote. Both are going to be hard to predict but hey, it cannot be any worse than the pigs ears and I am sure defeat will not taste as bad.

2:25 Adonis Juvenile Hurdle

It is going to be a close race I reckon and there are a few horses who could take this. I am going to go for PETIT PALAIS, a distance winner with more experience than the other close contenders, won last time out in January, fairly decisively.

Now that said, there is an interesting stat that Paul Nicholls has a habit of winning with new horses to his stable that have just been gelded. ECCO is just this type of horse and I am going to have to place a bet on this one as well just because it is such an odd stat.

1pt Win PETIT PALAIS

1pt WIN ECCO

3:00 Dovecote Novices Hurdle

Angels Breath looks good but last ran in December and is at this moment the favourite on Good Ground which means it is less likely to win. I guess I am concerned over the lack of recent runs and experience that this horse has.

Instead I am going to go for the more experienced SCARLET DRAGON, who won well last time out and was beaten last year by the good horse Global Citizen.

1pt WIN SCARLET DRAGON

No snow at #sandownraces – Bob

Sometimes I feel that my tipping using historical stats is a lot like my sons swimming. He thrashes around a lot, legs kicking, putting lots of energy into it, but when he looks up he has gone nowhere! Anyway, today could be different!

There are only 2 races really worth having a look at, Buveur D’Air is nailed on to win the Contenders Hurdle at some ridiculously low price so not even worth bothering. This leaves the Scilly Isles Novices Chase and the Heroes Handicap hurdle.

2:25 Scilly Isles Novices Chase

The betting guide predicts a close race and when I looked at this, early in the morning the going was good to soft, however it has now changed to soft which gives a clear leader in the stats.

VINNDICATION appears to be the one to beat, the right age and weight, won last out in December, the favourite in a race where they are more likely to win and runs very well on Soft going (5 from 5).

1pt Win VINNDICATION

3:00 Heroes Handicap Hurdle

The betting guide does well to pick out a few horses to look at, including some at large prices.

The horses that float to the top using the betting guide are Casko D’Airy, Folsom Blue, Flemcara and Mr Clarkson. Two of these should be considered for the win and the others for an each way.

Favourites rarely win at this race and chances are only slightly improved by it being soft going. At the moment of writing Casko D’Airy is the favourite which is why I will be going for FOLSOM BLUE for the win. The betting guide stats suggest that a horse that did not win or place last time out should be considered and FOLSOM BLUE came 8th in the last race at Chepstow, before that race a couple of 4ths and 1sts. This suggests that he should bounce back, well hopefully.

Mr Clarkson has a fair run of form previous to this race and perhaps should be considered for an each way go. He runs well on soft, is the right age and weight and OR and didn’t win last out but went well on soft going a few races back.

1pt Win FOLSOM BLUE

0.5pt e/w Mr Clarkson

Bob likes the going at #Cheltenhamraces and #Doncasterraces

The going looks as though it is a little more traditional than last week so I am tempted back to the stats once again.

2:25 Cheltenham – Cotswold Chase

This looks to be a two horse race between Frodon and Elegant Escape. However, it does go against some of the historical stats. The majority of winners have been 9 or 10 year olds but looking at those in the race today I don’t think they will be too much of a threat.

Frodon is a course winner and Elegant Escape a going winner but neither have won at this distance before which should be the defining point. There is only one distance winner in the race and that is Terrefort but the stats do not rate this horse.

So the question is does Frodon have enough to overcome the fact that favourites have not won this race in the last 10 outings. I think in this case he does and coupled with the fact that Elegant Escape had one helluva race in the Welsh National which must have left its mark, FRODON is the one I am going for.

1pt Win FRODON

3:35 Cleeve Hurdle – Cheltenham

The betting looks as though there is much indecision on who will win this race.

Paisley Park has definitely impressed lately but is not a course or going winner which the historical stats suggest the winner needs to be.

Black Op which seems to be heavily tipped does not fit the historical stats at all well.

I am going to plump for Aux Ptits Soins, a course, distance and going winner, won last time out in December and is French to boot.

1pt Win – AUX PTITS SOINS

3:15 Doncaster – Sky Bet Chase (Great Yorkshire)

There are a lot of good horses here and the betting guide goes some way to separating them out.

The historical stats point towards 3 horses at the top of the field, Dingo Dollar, O O Seven and Federici. All of the are distance and going winners, ran in December and ithin the weight range for a smallish field (about 7lbs off top weight from my graph).

There is not much to choose between them but DINGO DOLLAR just has the edge I reckon by dint of the fact he didn’t win last time but looks like an improver. Federici might be worth an e/w punt for the same reasons.

1pt Win – DINGO DOLLAR

0.5pt e/w – Federici

Bob cops a gander at #warwickraces and #kempton races

Well I really need something to get back against Baz this weekend, but I am not sure the historical stats are going to do it. Anyway, I will give it a go.

2:25 Warwick Leamington Novices

I always remember Leamington fondly having lived there in my second year of University. Great pub crawls up the high street!

The Betting Guide works quite well here but cannot break the deadlock between Tidal Flow and Stoney Mountain. Both are in the right age range, are distance and going winners, ran last in December and won and have a good pedigree. I am going to go with the runner that Baz hasn’t and pick STONEY MOUNTAIN as my choice.

Finawn Bawn must also be worth an each way bet here.

1pt win STONEY MOUNTAIN

0.5pt e/w Finawan Bawn

2:40 Lanzarote Hurdle

Never been to Lanzarote.

The Betting Guide is not great for this race so I don’t have great faith in my choices here. We are looking for a horse around 6 years old, probably a non-favourite, must have been ridden in the last 2 months and placed on a similar distance and going before. Winner is going to be close to the top weight.

Although N Henderson has done me no favours lately I am going to stick with him in this race. If Geraghty was the jockey I might have left this one! Anyway DOUX PRETENDER looks good for this one with Darling Maltaix and Lord Napier not far behind. Canyon City looks to be a good each way bet candidate.

1pt Win DOUX PRETENDER

0.5pt e/w Canyon City

3:00 Classic Chase

Again the Betting Guide is not great for this, the patterns all appear to be fairly negative in their approach but hey ho.

We are definitely not looking for the favourite, an Irish horse would be good, that has last run in January or December but should not have won or placed in this race. However, previous form they should have won or at least placed on the same going. Sadler’s Wells pedigree is good here. Ideally what we are looking for is a horse that is going to bounce back to winning form in this race.

Now this proves to be a bit of a dilemma, as this all points towards the top two horses, either of which could end up being the favourite. The stats are telling me that DUEL AT DAWN is the more likely candidate to win so I am hoping the trend will be bucked if he comes in favourite for this race. Step Back doesn’t ping on many of the indicators which is a bit worrying as it is so highly regarded so I am concerned I may be missing something here.

1pt win DUEL AT DAWN

Off to the #tolworthhurdle at #sandownraces – Bob

This is the solitary good race on today other than the Listed Mares Hurdle which I am going to give a miss. It normally has around 7 runners and has been won 4 times by N Henderson since 2011 and P Nicholls has a good record before that.

N Henderson has one horse in the race Rathhill who has had very little previous running. This shouldn’t be a concern as if you look back through my posts you will see he has done this lately and he only enters them if he knows they can win. Rathhill does tick virtually every box from the betting guide; Age 6, No Rating, last raced in December and won, has previously won at distance and on the same going, is Irish, the favourite and has an SP of less than 7/2.

The main obstacles to the win come from the two Nicholls horses and Tizzards, Elixir De Nutz. However, this horse has not placed on the Soft going yet so must be a concern. If the going gets Good to Soft we may see Henderson pull Rathhill and Elixir could be the main contender.

Paul Nicholls Southfield Storm and Grand Sancy both have won over distance and placed on the Soft going. However, Grand Sancy did not win in the last race and has too high an SP at the moment. Southfield Storm could be a player if the SP falls below 7/2.

Mercy Mercy Me looks to be one to avoid but Idee De Garde could prove to be better than the odds suggest as he is a proven distance winner and placed on the same going.

However, at the end of the day, unless the going changes dramatically towards Good (at which point I can see Henderson pull the horse) RATHHILL should win.

1pt Win RATHHILL

Happy #newyearsdayracing at #cheltenhamraces from Bob

I think I wisely chose not to drink last night, looks to be a lovely day! There are 3 races at Cheltenham today to consider.

  • 1:25 The Dipper Novices Chase
  • 2:00 The Betbright Chase
  • 3:10 The Relkeel Hurdle

1:25 The Dipper Novices Chase

The betting guide is up for this one and it does a good job separating out the contenders. There appears to be only one winner from this race and that is DEFI DU SEUIL. His form is good and fits the betting guide having raced in December, won the last race and at least placed on Good to Soft in a previous race. Also the SP looks as though it will be below 7/2 and although favourites are less inclined to win here it is not by much.

1pt win DEFI DU SEUIL

2:00 The Betbright Chase

The betting guide steers us away from the favourites and into the arms of Happy Diva and Give me a copper. Both tick the myriad of boxes for this race but I am going to plump for GIVE ME A COPPER. He is within the age and OR range, raced in December (winning that race) and placed on Good to Soft previously. He is not Top Weight but is not too far away and is an Irish horse.

1pt Win GIVE ME A COPPER

3:10 The Relkeel Hurdle

The betting guide seems to destroy most of the field as most seem to be too old, haven’t had their last race in November, did not place last time out and haven’t placed on Good to Soft going! This leaves us with a clear contender of THOMAS CAMPBELL. He is the right age, weight and has placed on Good to Soft before. He placed last time out in an early December race and has a Sadler’s Wells pedigree. Nicky Henderson also trains him and Henderson does well at this race.

1pt Win THOMAS CAMPBELL

Bob’s Saturday wake up call for #aintreeraces and #sandownraces

1.30 – Aintree – The Becher Chase

Using the betting guide I cannot nail down a winner as so many horses have the ability or pedigree to do well here. So I am considering a good each way bet on WALK IN THE MILL who runs well on Soft (But if it gets heavy then cash out !), has placed this season and is in the right age and OR range.

1.50 Sandown – Henry VIII Chase

It could very well be that Lalo will win this having some good previous wins at Class 1 but in order to add a bit of value to my picks I am going to go for DYNAMITE DOLLARS. This horse was well beaten by Lalor last time out but the stats suggest that it should do better, being the right age and a Paul Nicholls Horse in a race that has been won 4 times in the last 10 years by that stable.

2.05 Aintree – Many Clouds Chase

I cannot see beyond DEFINITLY RED for this race although have good claims for the win. Acdc has not run in a Class 1 race before so this may well be too much to ask. One for Arthur has been off with injury since the Grand National win so not sure how prepared he will be. Double Shuffle is probably the biggest threat, but has not won a Class 1 race yet.

3.00 Sandown – Tingle Creek

Again all the horses have very good claims to the win here, favourites are slightly preferred here and more so on softer ground. So for that reason and the fact that I cannot see this horse ever being beaten ALTIOR has to be the pick.

Rest of my preview of #newburyraces and #newcastle races – Bob

It started raining so tennis for the young one was cancelled, which has given me a better chance to complete the preview.

14:05 Newcastle – Fighting Fifth

It is quite difficult to separate the runners historically using the betting guide and Samcro comes out on top when you do this. However, BUVEUR D’AIR has a good record on Soft Ground and when Nicky Henderson has won here in the last 10 years the winner has always been the favourite. I am also a bit wary of Samcro after the defeat last time out.

14:25 Newbury – Gerry Feilden Hurdle

Using the betting guide, there are no stand out horses unfortunately. Ballymoy and Whatswrongwithyou get the nod but only just. At the end of the day WHATSWRONGWITHYOU has a better record on Soft going and is a course specialist.

15:00 Newbury – Trophy Chase

Again the betting guide really doesn’t sort out any winners from this field and I have had to use other stats based on Going, Distance and Course in order to make any headway. I finally ended up with 3 horses Thomas Patrick, Ms Parfois and Dingo Dollar, all who do well on historical stats but also on the other stats previously mentioned.

All perform fairly well on the Soft going although Dingo Dollar has only had one outing on Soft and won. This is a step up in distance for Ms Parfois but the other two have both won at this distance. Finally all have done well at Newbury in the past.

My slight preference is for the upcoming THOMAS PATRICK with an each way on Dingo Dollar.

So all my suggestions

12:45 Newbury – KILBRICKEN STORM

14:05 Newcastle – BUVEUR D’AIR

14:25 Newbury – WHATSWRONGWITHYOU

15:00 Newbury – THOMAS PATRICK (Dingo Dollar e/w)

 

Good Luck!

Bob vs Baz – The predictions #bobandbaz

Should be a good day!

14:05 Ascot  – (Christy) 1965 Chase

  • Politologue – Bob & Baz

14:25 Haydock – Betfair Exchange Stayers Hurdle

  • Folsom Blue & Shades of Midnight e/w – Baz
  • First Assignment (win) and Paisley Park e/w – Bob

14:40 Ascot – Ascot (Coral) Hurdle

  • If The Cap Fits – Bob & Baz

15:00 Haydock – Lancashire (Betfair) Chase

  • Native River – Baz
  • Might Bite – Bob

 

A look at the two other big races the #1965chase and the #Ascothurdle – Bob

Two big races may be at Haydock today, but there are equally big races happening at Ascot, namely the Christy 1965 Chase and the Ascot (Coral) Hurdle.

Lets start with the 1965 Chase which only has 6 runners which is a great pity.

Horses of 8 years old dominate the winners over the last 10 years and the only one in the field is Gold Present.

Winners over the last 10 years have all been within 10lbs of the top weight; this doesn’t help us as they all are, but there is a slight correlation between field size and weight with the larger the field the closer to the top weight the winner is. An extrapolation of this suggests that with a field of 6 the winner will be within 5lbs of the top weight; this includes Politologue, Benatar and Gold Present.

Favourites have a good record here making Politologue stand out and most horses who have won have an SP of 7/2 or below which at the moment only includes Charbel and Politologue.

Politologue is also the only P Nicholls horse in the field and he has won this more than anyone else in the last 10 years.

The Sadler’s Wells pedigree crops up again and only Politologue and Sizing Granite can claim this.

All of this points towards the favourite POLITOLOGUE to do what is expected. My only worry is how he will find the going as he has one on Ground more towards the soft lately. It could be that GOLD PRESENT might be the main danger and could be worth an e/w bet.

Advice: 2pts Win POLITOLOGUE, 1pt e/w GOLD PRESENT

Ascot Hurdle next

90% of winners come from the age group 4-7 so this discounts Rayvin Blue and Tomngerry.

There is a positive for the favourite as they have a higher percentage of winners and on the 3 times the race has been on Good ground the favourite has won twice; so therefore If the Cap Fits is standing tall here.

With the favourites winning the SP over the last 10 years is mainly 100/30 or below so this will only include If the Cap Fits and We Have A Dream.

Irish horses (If the Cap Fits and Tomngerry) and those with the trust Sadler’s Wells pedigree (If the Cap Fits and Babbling Stream) also stand out.

In terms of trainers N Henderson has won 3 times in the last 10 years and We Have A Dream is the only one he has in the field.

Weights of winners tend to be well spread out and there is little to no correlation between size of field and weight of the winner.

Advice

2pts win IF THE CAP FITS who was a good 7l ahead of We have a Dream in their last race.