Category: Declaration

Haldon Gold Cup – Declaration

Another small field like the weekend gone by, just 5 runners from 17 entries.

Building up a table of the percentages from the Betting guide you can see that Diego Du Charmil is a clear leader and ticks all the boxes.

Being a favourite is not so much of a problem in this race, I would be happier if the ground was softer as the percentage of favourites who win go up.

God’s Own is next behind but I am pretty sure the age factor will play a part here and therefore I do not think God’s Own will win.

100% of winners in the last 10 years have not had a run out since the start of the season, this is a fairly decisive factor and rules out the others.

Verdict

Diego Du Charmil 1pt to win

Old Roan Chase (Grade 2) (Class 1) – Aintree [Declaration]

A number of runners that entered have now been taken out leaving 9 runners in the field. My original choice of God’s Own is no longer running, so lets look for a suitable alternative.

Non-Favourite (90% of winners)

  • Cloudy Dream is the favourite at the time of writing

Generally odds below 10-1 (70% of winners)

  • Cloudy Dream (5/2)
  • Frodon (11/2)
  • Javert (6/1)
  • Value at Risk (6/1)
  • Flying Angel (15/2)
  • Theo (8/1)
  • Voix D’Eau (10/1)

Irish (70% of winners)

  • Cloudy Dream
  • Flying Angel
  • Javert
  • Templehills
  • Theo

No great pedigree needed (Nothing stands out)

Not raced this season (90% of winners)

  • Cloudy Dream
  • Flying Angel
  • Frodon
  • Javert
  • Ramses de Teillee
  • Value at Risk

Did not win last out (100% of winners)

  • Cloudy Dream
  • Flying Angel
  • Frodon
  • Ramses de Teillee

 

At the moment the main contenders are Cloudy Dream and Flying Angel, with Frodon and Javert not far behind.

Verdict at the moment

1pt to win Flying Angel if Cloudy Dream remains favourite otherwise 1pt to win Cloudy Dream.

 

Persian War Novices Hurdle (Class 1) (Grade 2) – Declaration

Down to 8 runners, this will make a big difference to the preview post, however, a lot of the main contenders are still there.

Ages 4-6

  • Minella Warrior
  • Secret Investor
  • Coolanly
  • Equus Millar
  • Gosheven
  • Push the Tempo
  • Dorking Boy

Irish Or French

  • Equus Millar
  • Gosheven
  • Push the Tempo
  • Coolanly
  • Minella Warrior

Trained by P Nicholls

  • Secret Investor

Sadlers Wells Pedigree

  • Equus Millar
  • Push the Tempo
  • Minella Warrior
  • Secret Investor
  • Double Treasure

Placed in the Last Race

  • Equus Millar
  • Push the Tempo
  • Minella Warrior
  • Secret Investor
  • Double Treasure

Still left with the same protagonists Equus Millar, Push the Tempo, Minella Warrior and Secret Investor.

Need to wait for the odds to stabilise and discount the favourite (at the moment Minella Warrior). Winners are normally below 10-1 so that would only leave Secret Investor and Minella Warrior as the two main contenders.

At the moment Secret Investor 1pt to win.

Chepstow Racecourse Silver Trophy H’Cap Hurdle (Grade 3) – Declaration

Well it has all changed with the declaration! Forget the previous post entirely.

Using the betting guide

Irish

  • Theclockisticking
  • Sneaky Feeling
  • Court Minstrel
  • Dashing Oscar
  • Louis Vac Pouch
  • Point of Principle

Sadlers Wells Pedigree

  • Le Patriote
  • Captain Cattistock
  • Sneaky Feeling
  • Court Minstrel
  • Louis Vac Pouch
  • Golden Birthday
  • Dashing Oscar
  • Point of Principle
  • Zalvados

Placed in last race

  • Theclockisticking
  • Whatmore
  • Zalvados
  • Chic Name

Theclockisticking is the favourite on the betting at this time so that would rule it out under the guide, the favourite has never won in ten years.

Average Starting Price is around 11-1 and although the winner has been as high as 40-1, this is only once in the last 10 years.

At the moment Sneaky Feeling or Court Minstrel look more likely, however Court Minstrel has won this twice before and is not rated as highly this time.

At the moment take a 1pt on Sneaky Feeling to win.

Chepstow.racecourse.co.uk Novices Chase (Listed) (Class 1) – Declaration

We are down to 5 runners from the original 18 so lets see how that affects things.

Age 5-6

  • Lisdoonvarna Lad
  • Spirit of the Games

Irish

  • Lisdoonvarna Lad
  • Spirit of the Games
  • Poetic Rhythm

Sadlers Wells Pedigree

  • Master Tommytucker

Placed Last Time Out

  • Monbeg Legend
  • Master Tommytucker

Tricky this one, going to be between Master Tommytucker and Spiritofthegames. Lisdoonvarna Lad would be in play but no horse over 6-1 has won the race and the present price suggests it isn’t going to be below that.

If the going swings towards Good to Soft (at the present it is Good) then things may change as it will if the present favourite changes (Monbeg Legend)